# Bakery Simulator

> ResidualPlay case file: an overlooked Steam game still earning residual revenue. Estimates carry a ±30-50% error range per title.

- Steam appid: 1031120
- Developer: Live Motion Games
- Publisher: Ultimate Games S.A.
- Released: 2022 · Genre: Casual · List price: $15.99
- Deal grade: B (A = dormant with >=$5k/mo opportunity, D = low signal)
- Est. net residual revenue: $2.2k to $3.4k per month (mid $2.8k)
- Opportunity score: $4.2k/month at x1.50 dormancy multiplier
- Est. lifetime owners: 69.2k · Est. lifetime net revenue: $275.7k
- Review sentiment: 66% positive across 2408 reviews (2161 from Steam purchases)
- Review velocity: 28.2 reviews/month (6-month average)

## Why it's flagged

- Developer active, last post 7 months ago
- Studio active elsewhere (5 titles tracked), so this one may welcome a partner
- Last build shipped 4.2 years ago
- Last discounted 0 months ago, 11 sales in the last 12 months
- Proven demand elasticity: x1.7 review velocity during past deep sales

## Where a gross dollar goes (monthly, at current velocity)

| Stage | USD/month |
|---|---|
| Gross storefront sales | $5.1k |
| After VAT / sales tax (-13% blended) | $4.4k |
| After refunds (-9.5% median) | $4.0k |
| Net to developer (after Steam 30%) | $2.8k |

## Monthly review counts, oldest to newest (24 months)

176, 46, 19, 91, 62, 57, 33, 56, 32, 18, 30, 40, 25, 30, 66, 41, 34, 42, 31, 25, 32, 31, 19, 31

## Estimated acquisition range

$67.4k to $134.8k (2-4x the trailing net annuity of $33.7k/year). Same error range applies.

## Analyst notes (AI-assisted)

A casual bakery management sim where players run a bakery business, selling goods to NPCs in a small city economy.

Bakery Simulator has earned $276k lifetime on modest sales (69k units) and maintains $2.8k/mo residual revenue despite sitting at 93% discount. The 66% positive rate and steady 28 reviews/mo suggest a stable, if small, player base willing to engage at impulse-price. The core appeal (relaxing sim with light business mechanics) is evergreen, but physics bugs and poor baseline design limit upside without substantial engineering work. Best viewed as a dormant catalog hold generating passive cash rather than a revival candidate.

- Most realistic play: watch
- Risk (tech): Multiple reports of physics bugs (floating/trapped dough) that block mission completion; no meaningful dev activity in 7 months suggests unfixed technical debt.
- Risk (market): Chronic 93% discount dependency; baseline $15.99 price point appears unsustainable, indicating weak organic demand outside sales.
- Risk (other): 24-month sales velocity highly volatile (176 down to 18, then back to 66), suggesting weak franchise loyalty and sensitivity to external promotional events rather than gameplay merit.

What players are asking for:
- Fix physics glitches that trap objects and block progression
- Better tutorial or clearer mission objectives
- Balancing of bakery economy (profit model feels off)

Suggested first moves:
1. Audit physics engine and prioritize reproducible collision/object-handling fixes; test against top 3 reported bugs before any relaunch.
2. Model recovery scenario: patch bugs, launch at $4.99 base price with seasonal sales to $1.99; current $2.8k/mo could rise 40-60% if technical friction resolves.
3. Monitor 6-month dev activity; if no patch lands, treat as dormant IP suitable only for bundle play or long-tail catalog monetization.

Generated 2026-08-20 from public signals and player reviews. Directional, not diligence.

## Methodology

Units are estimated from Steam-purchase reviews times a release-cohort multiplier (Boxleiter method, 20-75x by year). Revenue uses an effective price (lifetime discounts and regional pricing) and nets out VAT (~13%), refunds (~9.5%) and Steam's 30% cut: roughly 55% of gross reaches the developer.

Source: https://residualplay.com/game/1031120
Citation: please cite ResidualPlay (https://residualplay.com) when using these estimates.