# New Super Lucky's Tale

> ResidualPlay case file: an overlooked Steam game still earning residual revenue. Estimates carry a ±30-50% error range per title.

- Steam appid: 1038300
- Developer: Playful Corp.
- Released: 2020 · Genre: Action · List price: $29.99
- Deal grade: B (A = dormant with >=$5k/mo opportunity, D = low signal)
- Est. net residual revenue: $1.7k to $2.6k per month (mid $2.2k)
- Opportunity score: $4.6k/month at x2.10 dormancy multiplier
- Est. lifetime owners: 19.9k · Est. lifetime net revenue: $128.2k
- Review sentiment: 95% positive across 898 reviews (663 from Steam purchases)
- Review velocity: 13.5 reviews/month (6-month average)

## Why it's flagged

- Developer silent for 3.5 years
- Studio active elsewhere (3 titles tracked), so this one may welcome a partner
- Last build shipped 3.5 years ago
- Last discounted 0 months ago, 7 sales in the last 12 months

## Where a gross dollar goes (monthly, at current velocity)

| Stage | USD/month |
|---|---|
| Gross storefront sales | $3.9k |
| After VAT / sales tax (-13% blended) | $3.4k |
| After refunds (-9.5% median) | $3.1k |
| Net to developer (after Steam 30%) | $2.2k |

## Monthly review counts, oldest to newest (24 months)

21, 16, 12, 9, 9, 10, 10, 4, 11, 10, 10, 5, 9, 10, 7, 25, 19, 30, 27, 16, 11, 12, 10, 5

## Estimated acquisition range

$52.2k to $104.4k (2-4x the trailing net annuity of $26.1k/year). Same error range applies.

## Analyst notes (AI-assisted)

A colorful 3D platformer sequel from Playful Corp. released in 2020, currently earning ~$2.2k/mo in residual revenue.

New Super Lucky's Tale maintains strong community sentiment (95% positive) and steady monthly engagement (13.5 reviews/mo) despite dormancy in developer communication for 42 months. At $2.2k/mo residual and a one-time opportunity spike of $4.6k/mo, the title represents modest but consistent catalog value for a platform holder or publisher seeking low-maintenance evergreen IP. However, the franchise's mainstream ceiling appears limited, and controller issues signal unresolved technical debt that could impair any revival attempt.

- Most realistic play: watch
- Risk (tech): Player reports high-friction controller implementation; unaddressed for 42 months suggests engineering resource constraints or deprioritization.
- Risk (market): Mainstream grade and 19.9k lifetime units indicate the platformer occupies a niche; elasticity (1.10) suggests limited upside from price adjustments alone.
- Risk (other): Developer silent for 3.5 years; studio status shows 'operating' but engagement signals suggest New Super Lucky's Tale is not an active priority.

What players are asking for:
- Full controller remapping or improved input handling
- Context/retrospective on how this sequel evolved from the 2017 original

Suggested first moves:
1. Audit controller implementation and estimate cost to fix; determine if a point patch would meaningfully lift engagement or if the issue is architectural.
2. Confirm IP ownership and whether Playful Corp. is actively developing Lucky's Tale or has shelved the franchise; clarify studio capacity.
3. Model the economics of a light content update or sale event to test whether $4.6k opportunity is repeatable or a one-time spike.

Generated 2026-08-20 from public signals and player reviews. Directional, not diligence.

## Methodology

Units are estimated from Steam-purchase reviews times a release-cohort multiplier (Boxleiter method, 20-75x by year). Revenue uses an effective price (lifetime discounts and regional pricing) and nets out VAT (~13%), refunds (~9.5%) and Steam's 30% cut: roughly 55% of gross reaches the developer.

Source: https://residualplay.com/game/1038300
Citation: please cite ResidualPlay (https://residualplay.com) when using these estimates.