# Little Witch Nobeta

> ResidualPlay case file: an overlooked Steam game still earning residual revenue. Estimates carry a ±30-50% error range per title.

- Steam appid: 1049890
- Developer: Pupuya Games
- Released: 2022 · Genre: Action · List price: $24.99
- Deal grade: A (A = dormant with >=$5k/mo opportunity, D = low signal)
- Est. net residual revenue: $2.7k to $4.0k per month (mid $3.3k)
- Opportunity score: $5.5k/month at x1.65 dormancy multiplier
- Est. lifetime owners: 299.4k · Est. lifetime net revenue: $1.9M
- Review sentiment: 84% positive across 10054 reviews (9356 from Steam purchases)
- Review velocity: 21.5 reviews/month (6-month average)

## Why it's flagged

- Developer silent for 17 months
- Studio quiet across its whole catalog
- Last build shipped 34 months ago
- Last discounted 1 months ago, 6 sales in the last 12 months
- Proven demand elasticity: x1.3 review velocity during past deep sales

## Where a gross dollar goes (monthly, at current velocity)

| Stage | USD/month |
|---|---|
| Gross storefront sales | $6.1k |
| After VAT / sales tax (-13% blended) | $5.3k |
| After refunds (-9.5% median) | $4.8k |
| Net to developer (after Steam 30%) | $3.3k |

## Monthly review counts, oldest to newest (24 months)

25, 29, 21, 26, 35, 32, 29, 30, 20, 19, 21, 47, 20, 14, 25, 26, 32, 21, 23, 20, 15, 23, 14, 34

## Estimated acquisition range

$80.4k to $160.8k (2-4x the trailing net annuity of $40.2k/year). Same error range applies.

## Analyst notes (AI-assisted)

A 2022 action-magic shooter with soulslike elements and anime aesthetic, centered on the adorable witch Nobeta.

Little Witch Nobeta has quietly generated $1.86M lifetime revenue from 299k units at $24.99, earning $3,349/mo residual with 84% positive reviews and a modest but steady community. The game is developer-published, completed, and requires zero live-service maintenance: an attractive dormant catalog asset for publishers seeking low-risk revenue streams or studios building indie portfolios. However, the studio status is flagged 'fading' and dev communication stopped 17 months ago, signaling potential IP transition risk.

- Most realistic play: acquisition
- Licensed IP: the game is built on third-party intellectual property
- Risk (licensed_ip): Game features Hololive talent voice acting; confirm whether licensing agreements survive acquisition and what royalty/consent obligations remain.
- Risk (tech): Players report generic UE asset feel in some locations and early clunkiness; technical debt may limit appeal for revival or porting.
- Risk (market): Indie action-magic genre is crowded; title has 'mainstream: false' flag and elasticity 1.27 suggests high price sensitivity.

What players are asking for:
- End-game mode for NG+ progression (bring max-level Nobeta into trial tower)
- Reduced late-game level length (last 40% noted as overly long)
- More cosmetic/content updates to justify replay

Suggested first moves:
1. Audit Hololive talent licensing agreements: confirm scope, duration, and whether they bind to future publishers or require renegotiation.
2. Assess whether dev has bandwidth to support post-acquisition patches or whether the game is truly content-complete and maintenance-only.
3. Model pricing elasticity for a 20-30% price drop or seasonal bundling: reviews suggest reluctance to buy at full $24.99, but discount history (max 55%, last sale 1.4 months ago) shows price cuts drive modest engagement spikes.

Generated 2026-08-20 from public signals and player reviews. Directional, not diligence.

## Methodology

Units are estimated from Steam-purchase reviews times a release-cohort multiplier (Boxleiter method, 20-75x by year). Revenue uses an effective price (lifetime discounts and regional pricing) and nets out VAT (~13%), refunds (~9.5%) and Steam's 30% cut: roughly 55% of gross reaches the developer.

Source: https://residualplay.com/game/1049890
Citation: please cite ResidualPlay (https://residualplay.com) when using these estimates.