# Sherlock Holmes Chapter One

> ResidualPlay case file: an overlooked Steam game still earning residual revenue. Estimates carry a ±30-50% error range per title.

- Steam appid: 1137300
- Developer: Frogwares
- Released: 2021 · Genre: Action · List price: $44.99
- Deal grade: A (A = dormant with >=$5k/mo opportunity, D = low signal)
- Est. net residual revenue: $13.7k to $20.5k per month (mid $17.1k)
- Opportunity score: $25.7k/month at x1.50 dormancy multiplier
- Est. lifetime owners: 131.8k · Est. lifetime net revenue: $1.5M
- Review sentiment: 78% positive across 4489 reviews (4120 from Steam purchases)
- Review velocity: 61.0 reviews/month (6-month average)

## Why it's flagged

- Developer active, last post 1 months ago
- Studio active elsewhere (13 titles tracked), so this one may welcome a partner
- Last build shipped 4.4 years ago
- Last discounted 0 months ago, 11 sales in the last 12 months

## Where a gross dollar goes (monthly, at current velocity)

| Stage | USD/month |
|---|---|
| Gross storefront sales | $31.1k |
| After VAT / sales tax (-13% blended) | $27.0k |
| After refunds (-9.5% median) | $24.5k |
| Net to developer (after Steam 30%) | $17.1k |

## Monthly review counts, oldest to newest (24 months)

52, 89, 51, 55, 62, 50, 55, 45, 55, 45, 29, 25, 51, 53, 71, 55, 59, 91, 67, 78, 52, 53, 56, 60

## Estimated acquisition range

$410.6k to $821.1k (2-4x the trailing net annuity of $205.3k/year). Same error range applies.

## Analyst notes (AI-assisted)

A 2021 detective-mystery action-adventure set in 1890s London where players investigate cases as a young Sherlock Holmes with open-world exploration and deduction mechanics.

Chapter One is a quiet but durable earner still generating $17.1k/mo residual revenue four years post-launch, with 77.6% positive reviews and strong player engagement (61 reviews/mo, 40-113h playtimes documented). The franchise IP is owned by Frogwares, the developer and publisher, making outright acquisition theoretically simpler than most licensed detective games; however, the title's core tension between mystery-solving depth and combat padding, combined with its niche appeal outside hardcore detective-game fans, limits mainstream growth potential. Best suited for: a publisher seeking to deepen Frogwares' catalog monetization or a developer evaluating how Frogwares sustains its Holmes franchise IP long-term.

- Most realistic play: watch
- Risk (market): Mystery-detective gameplay polarizes audiences: players either invest 40-113 hours for story depth or bounce within 6-10 hours frustrated by UX friction and mandatory combat sequences.
- Risk (tech): Combat mechanics are a recurring friction point; several reviews cite tedium and difficulty spikes that discourage puzzle-focused players, suggesting design misalignment.
- Risk (other): Character design choices (younger, stylized Sherlock) are divisive; some players see creative reimagining while others perceive franchise departure and tone mismatch.

What players are asking for:
- Option to skip or reduce combat sequences entirely; players want to solve mysteries without gunfight friction
- Improved UI/UX to reduce menu navigation overhead and keep focus on deduction gameplay
- More side cases and mystery variety; fans explicitly request deeper case content
- Better integration of combat into narrative (e.g., arrest/non-lethal path rewards) rather than padding

Suggested first moves:
1. Audit residual-revenue drivers: 11 discount promotions in 12 months (currently at 90% off, $4.49) suggests aggressive clearance; analyze whether deeper sales correlate with positive review uptick or simply volume cannibalization.
2. Assess Frogwares' pipeline for Holmes sequels or spin-offs: Chapter One's 53-month age and developer's 1.4-month activity window suggest the studio is active elsewhere; validate whether Chapter One is a platform for ongoing franchise expansion or a completed IP chapter.
3. Conduct player cohort analysis on the 'skip combat' request: if 40%+ of engaged players (60+ hours) used difficulty reduction or walkthroughs, a 'pure deduction' mode could unlock a larger detective-game audience without full remake cost.

Generated 2026-08-20 from public signals and player reviews. Directional, not diligence.

## Methodology

Units are estimated from Steam-purchase reviews times a release-cohort multiplier (Boxleiter method, 20-75x by year). Revenue uses an effective price (lifetime discounts and regional pricing) and nets out VAT (~13%), refunds (~9.5%) and Steam's 30% cut: roughly 55% of gross reaches the developer.

Source: https://residualplay.com/game/1137300
Citation: please cite ResidualPlay (https://residualplay.com) when using these estimates.