# 9-nine-:Episode 3

> ResidualPlay case file: an overlooked Steam game still earning residual revenue. Estimates carry a ±30-50% error range per title.

- Steam appid: 1142830
- Developer: PALETTE
- Publisher: Sekai Project
- Released: 2020 · Genre: Action · List price: $19.99
- Deal grade: B (A = dormant with >=$5k/mo opportunity, D = low signal)
- Est. net residual revenue: $1.0k to $1.5k per month (mid $1.3k)
- Opportunity score: $2.7k/month at x2.10 dormancy multiplier
- Est. lifetime owners: 30.4k · Est. lifetime net revenue: $130.8k
- Review sentiment: 92% positive across 1039 reviews (1015 from Steam purchases)
- Review velocity: 12.0 reviews/month (6-month average)

## Why it's flagged

- Developer silent for 5.5 years
- Studio quiet across its whole catalog
- Last build shipped 6.0 years ago
- Store page localized in only 3 language(s)
- Last discounted 1 months ago, 7 sales in the last 12 months
- Proven demand elasticity: x1.3 review velocity during past deep sales

## Where a gross dollar goes (monthly, at current velocity)

| Stage | USD/month |
|---|---|
| Gross storefront sales | $2.3k |
| After VAT / sales tax (-13% blended) | $2.0k |
| After refunds (-9.5% median) | $1.8k |
| Net to developer (after Steam 30%) | $1.3k |

## Monthly review counts, oldest to newest (24 months)

20, 8, 11, 10, 28, 34, 25, 20, 15, 17, 22, 32, 30, 11, 19, 17, 14, 28, 15, 6, 10, 9, 10, 22

## Estimated acquisition range

$30.9k to $61.9k (2-4x the trailing net annuity of $15.5k/year). Same error range applies.

## Analyst notes (AI-assisted)

9-nine- Episode 3 is a visual novel and the third installment in the 9-nine- series, focusing on character Haruka's story and setting up the franchise finale.

This quiet visual novel sits at the tail end of a niche series with solid 91.9% positive sentiment and $1,289/mo residual revenue, but faces structural headwinds: dev communication has gone silent for 65+ months, the studio is fading, and player reviews flag pacing and narrative cohesion issues between character-driven and worldbuilding sections. Revival or acquisition only makes sense as part of a broader visual novel catalog play or if the full 9-nine- IP bundle (including Episodes 1-2) is available; Episode 3 alone has limited standalone value. Watch if you are actively acquiring dormant visual novel series with established fanbases.

- Most realistic play: watch
- Risk (market): Visual novel audience is niche and price-sensitive; 60% max discount and 7 promotions in 12 months suggest heavy reliance on sales to move units.
- Risk (other): Developer radio silence for 65+ months and studio fading status raises questions about post-launch support and franchise continuation plans.
- Risk (other): Player reviews highlight uneven pacing and narrative disconnect within Episode 3 itself, suggesting creative or production friction that may affect player retention and word-of-mouth.

What players are asking for:
- More balanced pacing between story drops and character slice-of-life sections
- Stronger narrative connection between Haruka's personal arc and the overarching series mythology

Suggested first moves:
1. Obtain master IP agreement for the full 9-nine- series (Episodes 1-3) and clarify rights to any planned Episode 4/finale; Episode 3 alone is incomplete.
2. Audit Sekai Project's publishing roadmap and developer PALETTE's status; 65+ months of silence may signal contractual or creative gridlock.
3. Analyze the full franchise's lifetime revenue and player migration across episodes to model whether a remaster, localization expansion, or console port can revive residual sales beyond $1,289/mo.

Generated 2026-08-20 from public signals and player reviews. Directional, not diligence.

## Methodology

Units are estimated from Steam-purchase reviews times a release-cohort multiplier (Boxleiter method, 20-75x by year). Revenue uses an effective price (lifetime discounts and regional pricing) and nets out VAT (~13%), refunds (~9.5%) and Steam's 30% cut: roughly 55% of gross reaches the developer.

Source: https://residualplay.com/game/1142830
Citation: please cite ResidualPlay (https://residualplay.com) when using these estimates.