# FAIRY TAIL

> ResidualPlay case file: an overlooked Steam game still earning residual revenue. Estimates carry a ±30-50% error range per title.

- Steam appid: 1233260
- Developer: KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
- Released: 2020 · Genre: Action · List price: $59.99
- Deal grade: B (A = dormant with >=$5k/mo opportunity, D = low signal)
- Est. net residual revenue: $1.8k to $2.6k per month (mid $2.2k)
- Opportunity score: $4.1k/month at x1.85 dormancy multiplier
- Est. lifetime owners: 45.9k · Est. lifetime net revenue: $591.9k
- Review sentiment: 74% positive across 1839 reviews (1530 from Steam purchases)
- Review velocity: 6.8 reviews/month (6-month average)

## Why it's flagged

- Developer silent for 20 months
- Studio active elsewhere (76 titles tracked), so this one may welcome a partner
- Last build shipped 6.0 years ago
- Last discounted 0 months ago, 6 sales in the last 12 months
- Proven demand elasticity: x2.0 review velocity during past deep sales

## Where a gross dollar goes (monthly, at current velocity)

| Stage | USD/month |
|---|---|
| Gross storefront sales | $4.0k |
| After VAT / sales tax (-13% blended) | $3.5k |
| After refunds (-9.5% median) | $3.1k |
| Net to developer (after Steam 30%) | $2.2k |

## Monthly review counts, oldest to newest (24 months)

13, 12, 18, 29, 25, 16, 3, 10, 16, 11, 15, 2, 2, 2, 6, 7, 7, 6, 4, 5, 16, 6, 6, 4

## Estimated acquisition range

$52.9k to $105.7k (2-4x the trailing net annuity of $26.4k/year). Same error range applies.

## Analyst notes (AI-assisted)

Fairy Tail is a 2020 anime action-RPG tie-in based on the long-running manga/anime franchise, developed and published by Koei Tecmo.

This $59.99 licensed title has earned $592k lifetime across 46k units with a modest 74% positive rating, generating $2.2k/mo residual revenue. However, the game sits in a precarious position: it's nearly four years post-launch with minimal developer engagement (20 months since last post), a steep price point relative to its age, and player frustration over legacy DLC pricing and technical debt. The opportunity is narrow and time-sensitive: either a licensing renewal + full technical refresh targeting lapsed Fairy Tail fans, or a quiet asset hold. Acquisition of the game alone is unlikely to be viable given IP ownership rests with A-1 Pictures / Shueisha.

- Most realistic play: licensing
- Licensed IP: the game is built on third-party intellectual property
- Risk (licensed_ip): Fairy Tail IP is owned by Shueisha (manga) and A-1 Pictures (anime); Koei Tecmo holds a time-limited publishing license that may have expired or may be renegotiable at unfavorable terms.
- Risk (tech): Player reviews cite glitches and outdated systems; zero developer posts in 20 months suggests the codebase is no longer actively maintained.
- Risk (market): The franchise's peak cultural moment has passed; the manga ended in 2019, and no major anime sequel has reignited mainstream interest since launch.
- Risk (other): High elasticity (1.99) and aggressive discounting history (67% max, 6 promotions in 12 months) signal price sensitivity; the $59.99 ask is misaligned with player perception of value.

What players are asking for:
- Technical fixes: crash/glitch resolution and balance patches
- DLC pricing reform or bundling to justify legacy purchases
- New story content tied to recent anime developments

Suggested first moves:
1. Verify the current license agreement with Shueisha / A-1 Pictures: confirm expiration date, renewal cost, and any exclusivity clauses that would block a competing publisher from acquiring the code.
2. Conduct a technical audit of the codebase to estimate the cost of a ground-up port or minimal-viable patch (especially for modern OS, anti-cheat, and GPU compatibility).
3. If renewal is feasible at <$100k/year, model a soft relaunch: bundle legacy DLC at 50% discount, push a single quality-of-life patch, and test a short seasonal event to measure player return rate and revenue uplift.

Generated 2026-08-20 from public signals and player reviews. Directional, not diligence.

## Methodology

Units are estimated from Steam-purchase reviews times a release-cohort multiplier (Boxleiter method, 20-75x by year). Revenue uses an effective price (lifetime discounts and regional pricing) and nets out VAT (~13%), refunds (~9.5%) and Steam's 30% cut: roughly 55% of gross reaches the developer.

Source: https://residualplay.com/game/1233260
Citation: please cite ResidualPlay (https://residualplay.com) when using these estimates.