# Fragile Box

> ResidualPlay case file: an overlooked Steam game still earning residual revenue. Estimates carry a ±30-50% error range per title.

- Steam appid: 1244210
- Developer: Kara Sokra
- Released: 2020 · Genre: Casual · List price: $1.99
- Deal grade: C (A = dormant with >=$5k/mo opportunity, D = low signal)
- Est. net residual revenue: $24 to $36 per month (mid $30)
- Opportunity score: $64/month at x2.10 dormancy multiplier
- Est. lifetime owners: 900 · Est. lifetime net revenue: $385
- Review sentiment: 80% positive across 35 reviews (30 from Steam purchases)
- Review velocity: 2.8 reviews/month (6-month average)

## Why it's flagged

- No developer announcement on record, ever
- Studio inactive: no public activity across 1 tracked titles
- Last build shipped 6.6 years ago

## Where a gross dollar goes (monthly, at current velocity)

| Stage | USD/month |
|---|---|
| Gross storefront sales | $55 |
| After VAT / sales tax (-13% blended) | $48 |
| After refunds (-9.5% median) | $43 |
| Net to developer (after Steam 30%) | $30 |

## Monthly review counts, oldest to newest (22 months)

20, 4, 2, 1, 0, 2, 2, 1, 1, 2, 1, 0, 1, 0, 2, 1, 2, 7, 3, 2, 1, 2

## Methodology

Units are estimated from Steam-purchase reviews times a release-cohort multiplier (Boxleiter method, 20-75x by year). Revenue uses an effective price (lifetime discounts and regional pricing) and nets out VAT (~13%), refunds (~9.5%) and Steam's 30% cut: roughly 55% of gross reaches the developer.

Source: https://residualplay.com/game/1244210
Citation: please cite ResidualPlay (https://residualplay.com) when using these estimates.