# The Lord of the Rings: Gollum™

> ResidualPlay case file: an overlooked Steam game still earning residual revenue. Estimates carry a ±30-50% error range per title.

- Steam appid: 1265780
- Developer: Daedalic Entertainment
- Released: 2023 · Genre: Action · List price: $49.99
- Deal grade: A (A = dormant with >=$5k/mo opportunity, D = low signal)
- Est. net residual revenue: $2.3k to $3.5k per month (mid $2.9k)
- Opportunity score: $6.1k/month at x2.10 dormancy multiplier
- Est. lifetime owners: 26.4k · Est. lifetime net revenue: $329.5k
- Review sentiment: 40% positive across 1514 reviews (826 from Steam purchases)
- Review velocity: 9.3 reviews/month (6-month average)

## Why it's flagged

- Developer silent for 3.1 years
- Studio quiet across its whole catalog
- Last build shipped 3.1 years ago
- 45% of reviews come from key activations (excluded from revenue estimates)
- Last discounted 1 months ago, 11 sales in the last 12 months

## Where a gross dollar goes (monthly, at current velocity)

| Stage | USD/month |
|---|---|
| Gross storefront sales | $5.3k |
| After VAT / sales tax (-13% blended) | $4.6k |
| After refunds (-9.5% median) | $4.2k |
| Net to developer (after Steam 30%) | $2.9k |

## Monthly review counts, oldest to newest (24 months)

11, 14, 1, 11, 87, 40, 36, 21, 13, 10, 13, 15, 9, 13, 12, 7, 18, 9, 11, 10, 6, 9, 6, 14

## Estimated acquisition range

$69.8k to $139.6k (2-4x the trailing net annuity of $34.9k/year). Same error range applies.

## Analyst notes (AI-assisted)

A narrative-driven action-stealth game centered on Gollum's perspective in Middle-earth, published by Daedalic Entertainment in 2023.

The Lord of the Rings: Gollum occupies an unusual position: licensed IP from a major franchise, modest but stable residual revenue ($2.9k/mo mid-estimate), and a 40% positive review rate suggesting a dedicated niche audience values its storytelling and immersive mechanics despite technical friction. The game's low mainstream penetration (26k lifetime units, $329k net lifetime) and absence of developer communication for 37 months signal opportunity only if the acquirer can secure IP renewal and commit to targeted QA or narrative content that appeals to the core who stayed. Revival or licensing angles are more realistic than full acquisition.

- Most realistic play: licensing
- Licensed IP: the game is built on third-party intellectual property
- Risk (licensed_ip): The Lord of the Rings IP is held by Embracer Group (Middle-earth Enterprises); any ongoing commercial rights or rights renewal will require direct negotiation and are not guaranteed.
- Risk (tech): Players cite persistent bugs and control friction; 37 months of no developer posts suggests active maintenance is minimal, raising porting or fix costs.
- Risk (market): At $49.99 with a 40% positive rate and 11 discount campaigns in 12 months, the title shows low elasticity uptake; audience is small and price-sensitive.

What players are asking for:
- Bug fixes and QA polish, especially blocking progression issues
- Control remapping or sensitivity tuning for accessibility
- Expanded narrative content or optional story branches

Suggested first moves:
1. Verify Embracer Group's stance on rights renewal and licensing terms for any sequel, remaster, or live-ops initiative before committing capital.
2. Audit the codebase and bug tracker to scope QA remediation cost; prioritize fixes cited in reviews (progression blockers, control responsiveness).
3. Model a targeted revival campaign (narrative DLC, cosmetic cosmetics, or a 60-70% discount promotion paired with Steam visibility) to test whether residual audience will expand to $4-5k/mo with friction removed.

Generated 2026-08-20 from public signals and player reviews. Directional, not diligence.

## Methodology

Units are estimated from Steam-purchase reviews times a release-cohort multiplier (Boxleiter method, 20-75x by year). Revenue uses an effective price (lifetime discounts and regional pricing) and nets out VAT (~13%), refunds (~9.5%) and Steam's 30% cut: roughly 55% of gross reaches the developer.

Source: https://residualplay.com/game/1265780
Citation: please cite ResidualPlay (https://residualplay.com) when using these estimates.