# The Test: Hypothesis Rising

> ResidualPlay case file: an overlooked Steam game still earning residual revenue. Estimates carry a ±30-50% error range per title.

- Steam appid: 1282200
- Developer: Randumb Studios
- Released: 2020 · Genre: Adventure · List price: $1.99
- Deal grade: D (A = dormant with >=$5k/mo opportunity, D = low signal)
- Est. net residual revenue: $76 to $113 per month (mid $94)
- Opportunity score: $94/month at x1.00 dormancy multiplier
- Est. lifetime owners: 174.9k · Est. lifetime net revenue: $74.8k
- Review sentiment: 98% positive across 5919 reviews (5830 from Steam purchases)
- Review velocity: 8.8 reviews/month (6-month average)

## Why it's flagged

- Developer active, last post 6 months ago
- Studio active elsewhere (8 titles tracked), so this one may welcome a partner
- Last build shipped 7 months ago
- Store page localized in only 1 language(s)
- Last discounted 1 months ago, 10 sales in the last 12 months

## Where a gross dollar goes (monthly, at current velocity)

| Stage | USD/month |
|---|---|
| Gross storefront sales | $171 |
| After VAT / sales tax (-13% blended) | $149 |
| After refunds (-9.5% median) | $135 |
| Net to developer (after Steam 30%) | $94 |

## Monthly review counts, oldest to newest (24 months)

30, 22, 27, 15, 20, 6, 18, 26, 12, 31, 23, 17, 10, 12, 8, 13, 8, 8, 17, 9, 7, 7, 6, 7

## Methodology

Units are estimated from Steam-purchase reviews times a release-cohort multiplier (Boxleiter method, 20-75x by year). Revenue uses an effective price (lifetime discounts and regional pricing) and nets out VAT (~13%), refunds (~9.5%) and Steam's 30% cut: roughly 55% of gross reaches the developer.

Source: https://residualplay.com/game/1282200
Citation: please cite ResidualPlay (https://residualplay.com) when using these estimates.