# Hard West 2

> ResidualPlay case file: an overlooked Steam game still earning residual revenue. Estimates carry a ±30-50% error range per title.

- Steam appid: 1282410
- Developer: Ice Code Games
- Publisher: Good Shepherd Entertainment
- Released: 2022 · Genre: Action · List price: $29.99
- Deal grade: A (A = dormant with >=$5k/mo opportunity, D = low signal)
- Est. net residual revenue: $3.5k to $5.3k per month (mid $4.4k)
- Opportunity score: $5.9k/month at x1.35 dormancy multiplier
- Est. lifetime owners: 86.8k · Est. lifetime net revenue: $648.7k
- Review sentiment: 82% positive across 3206 reviews (2711 from Steam purchases)
- Review velocity: 23.5 reviews/month (6-month average)

## Why it's flagged

- Developer silent for 14 months
- Studio active elsewhere (3 titles tracked), so this one may welcome a partner
- Last build shipped 14 months ago
- Last discounted 1 months ago, 7 sales in the last 12 months
- Proven demand elasticity: x1.4 review velocity during past deep sales

## Where a gross dollar goes (monthly, at current velocity)

| Stage | USD/month |
|---|---|
| Gross storefront sales | $8.0k |
| After VAT / sales tax (-13% blended) | $6.9k |
| After refunds (-9.5% median) | $6.3k |
| Net to developer (after Steam 30%) | $4.4k |

## Monthly review counts, oldest to newest (24 months)

18, 18, 27, 37, 39, 18, 13, 23, 21, 14, 16, 22, 25, 17, 13, 23, 14, 18, 40, 28, 22, 13, 15, 23

## Estimated acquisition range

$105.4k to $210.9k (2-4x the trailing net annuity of $52.7k/year). Same error range applies.

## Analyst notes (AI-assisted)

Hard West 2 is a turn-based tactical shooter set in a supernatural Old West, blending XCOM-style combat with a card-based ability system and narrative-driven mission structure.

Hard West 2 sits in a profitable quiet period, generating $4,393/mo on $648k lifetime revenue from 87k units sold across 14 months post-launch. The 82% positive rating and steady monthly reviews (23.5/mo) suggest stable, engaged niche audience; the 1.4 elasticity means pricing power remains. Revival or publishing-adjacent plays (DLC, console port, bundling) are realistic given Ice Code's small output (2 titles) and Good Shepherd's track record, but the franchise's hardcore tactical following limits mainstream upside. Watch for pricing experimentation or seasonal sale cadence to unlock the $5,930/mo opportunity ceiling.

- Most realistic play: revival
- Risk (market): XCOM-adjacent genre is crowded; difficulty balancing complaints suggest players expect accessibility tuning that original vision may resist.
- Risk (other): Franchise comparison fatigue: sequel perceived as 'dumbed down' versus Hard West 1 by vocal segment, risking creative direction backlash on post-launch content.
- Risk (tech): Line-of-sight and height-based visibility bugs reported; unfixed since launch suggests technical debt may impede scaling to new platforms or content.

What players are asking for:
- Overwatch command or delayed reaction mechanic for deeper tactical depth
- Card/Bravado system expansion and balancing to reduce perceived 'dumbing down' versus original
- Restoration of Hard West 1 mechanics (reload, hands-up) as optional difficulty modifiers
- Difficulty tuning and RNG transparency (75% hit chance misses)

Suggested first moves:
1. A/B test a 40-50% off promotional pricing event in Q2/Q3 to move residual revenue from $4,393/mo toward $5,930/mo ceiling; track elasticity sensitivity to confirm 1.4 hold.
2. Commission a balance patch addressing RNG transparency (display true hit % in-UI) and introduce an optional 'Hardcore Overwatch' difficulty modifier that restores Hard West 1 reload/delay mechanics as opt-in to recapture lapsed players.
3. Evaluate console porting (Switch/PS5) with publisher; 15% key-share rate and no console presence suggest untapped $2-3k/mo runway if porting cost is <$150k.

Generated 2026-08-20 from public signals and player reviews. Directional, not diligence.

## Methodology

Units are estimated from Steam-purchase reviews times a release-cohort multiplier (Boxleiter method, 20-75x by year). Revenue uses an effective price (lifetime discounts and regional pricing) and nets out VAT (~13%), refunds (~9.5%) and Steam's 30% cut: roughly 55% of gross reaches the developer.

Source: https://residualplay.com/game/1282410
Citation: please cite ResidualPlay (https://residualplay.com) when using these estimates.