# 暖雪 Warm Snow

> ResidualPlay case file: an overlooked Steam game still earning residual revenue. Estimates carry a ±30-50% error range per title.

- Steam appid: 1296830
- Developer: BadMudStudio
- Publisher: bilibili
- Released: 2022 · Genre: Action · List price: $17.99
- Deal grade: A (A = dormant with >=$5k/mo opportunity, D = low signal)
- Est. net residual revenue: $8.0k to $12.0k per month (mid $10.0k)
- Opportunity score: $16.6k/month at x1.65 dormancy multiplier
- Est. lifetime owners: 1.1M · Est. lifetime net revenue: $5.1M
- Review sentiment: 93% positive across 39005 reviews (35195 from Steam purchases)
- Review velocity: 89.5 reviews/month (6-month average)

## Why it's flagged

- Developer silent for 17 months
- Studio quiet across its whole catalog
- Last build shipped 19 months ago

## Where a gross dollar goes (monthly, at current velocity)

| Stage | USD/month |
|---|---|
| Gross storefront sales | $18.2k |
| After VAT / sales tax (-13% blended) | $15.9k |
| After refunds (-9.5% median) | $14.3k |
| Net to developer (after Steam 30%) | $10.0k |

## Monthly review counts, oldest to newest (24 months)

146, 177, 153, 261, 198, 162, 136, 169, 93, 80, 126, 166, 144, 122, 135, 99, 96, 103, 81, 104, 66, 87, 82, 117

## Estimated acquisition range

$240.9k to $481.8k (2-4x the trailing net annuity of $120.4k/year). Same error range applies.

## Analyst notes (AI-assisted)

暖雪 Warm Snow is a 2022 action roguelike by BadMudStudio (published by Bilibili) built on Chinese IP with metaprogression, weapon variety, and status-effect stacking mechanics.

This title has shipped 1.13M copies and generated $5.05M lifetime revenue on a $17.99 price point with a 93% positive rating and steady 10k/month residual revenue. However, dev activity has been dormant for 17+ months, the studio is flagged as fading, and player feedback reveals unfinished systems: weapons lack visual differentiation, status effects don't work as designed, and localization is incomplete. The game has clearly found a niche audience (especially in Asia), but it is functionally incomplete. Acquisition makes sense only if a buyer can commit to systems polish and localization; a publishing restart or IP licensing deal to another studio is likelier to unlock value.

- Most realistic play: publishing
- Licensed IP: the game is built on third-party intellectual property
- Risk (licensed_ip): Warm Snow appears to be built on or tied to Bilibili IP or Chinese gaming IP; confirm IP ownership and whether a new publisher can retain or renegotiate rights.
- Risk (tech): Core gameplay systems (status effects, weapon balance, stat scaling) are reportedly broken or incomplete per player feedback, and dev post activity ceased 17+ months ago.
- Risk (market): Mainstream Western awareness is minimal (not tracked on ITAD, mainstream flag false); English localization is acknowledged as incomplete by players.
- Risk (other): Studio is classified as fading with only one title in portfolio; likelihood of returning for post-launch support is low without new publisher intervention.

What players are asking for:
- Weapon animations and visual differentiation (all weapons currently reuse starting sword animation)
- Fix status effect stacking and balance (poison, bleed, burn, frost reportedly only tick once)
- Complete English localization and in-game tutorials
- Clarify lore and progression systems (little explanation, design philosophy unclear)

Suggested first moves:
1. Confirm IP status with Bilibili and BadMudStudio; map licensing constraints and whether rights can transfer to a new publisher.
2. Commission a technical audit of status-effect mechanics, weapon balance, and localization gaps to quantify remediation scope and cost.
3. Model a modest live-service restart: 2-3 post-launch patches addressing top three player asks (weapon visuals, status effect fixes, localization completion) plus seasonal events to re-engage 1.1M installed base and re-ignite reviews (currently 89.5/mo).

Generated 2026-08-20 from public signals and player reviews. Directional, not diligence.

## Methodology

Units are estimated from Steam-purchase reviews times a release-cohort multiplier (Boxleiter method, 20-75x by year). Revenue uses an effective price (lifetime discounts and regional pricing) and nets out VAT (~13%), refunds (~9.5%) and Steam's 30% cut: roughly 55% of gross reaches the developer.

Source: https://residualplay.com/game/1296830
Citation: please cite ResidualPlay (https://residualplay.com) when using these estimates.