# Thief Simulator 2

> ResidualPlay case file: an overlooked Steam game still earning residual revenue. Estimates carry a ±30-50% error range per title.

- Steam appid: 1332720
- Developer: CookieDev
- Publisher: PlayWay S.A.
- Released: 2023 · Genre: Action · List price: $19.99
- Deal grade: A (A = dormant with >=$5k/mo opportunity, D = low signal)
- Est. net residual revenue: $10.7k to $16.0k per month (mid $13.4k)
- Opportunity score: $17.4k/month at x1.30 dormancy multiplier
- Est. lifetime owners: 206.0k · Est. lifetime net revenue: $1.0M
- Review sentiment: 88% positive across 6710 reviews (6438 from Steam purchases)
- Review velocity: 107.2 reviews/month (6-month average)

## Why it's flagged

- Developer active, last post 0 months ago
- Studio active elsewhere (2 titles tracked), so this one may welcome a partner
- Last build shipped 26 months ago
- Last discounted 0 months ago, 13 sales in the last 12 months

## Where a gross dollar goes (monthly, at current velocity)

| Stage | USD/month |
|---|---|
| Gross storefront sales | $24.2k |
| After VAT / sales tax (-13% blended) | $21.1k |
| After refunds (-9.5% median) | $19.1k |
| Net to developer (after Steam 30%) | $13.4k |

## Monthly review counts, oldest to newest (24 months)

159, 136, 112, 151, 128, 119, 103, 110, 93, 189, 107, 154, 126, 100, 114, 87, 119, 152, 65, 114, 95, 125, 127, 117

## Missed seasonal-sale revenue (modeled)

Skipped 1 Steam seasonal sale window(s) in the last 24 months. Running a -50% discount in those windows is modeled at +$5.4k net in total, assuming a unit uplift of x3.0 (industry-typical for old catalog titles). Same ±30-50% error range applies.

## Estimated acquisition range

$320.5k to $641.0k (2-4x the trailing net annuity of $160.2k/year). Same error range applies.

## Analyst notes (AI-assisted)

A heist-focused stealth-action sim where players break into homes, disable security, and steal valuables.

Thief Simulator 2 sits at an inflection point: $1.03M lifetime net revenue on 206K units with 88% positive reviews signals genuine player appeal, yet the community is sharply divided between newcomers who praise polish and franchise veterans who feel the sequel lost what made the original work. Current residual revenue of $13.4K/mo on a steeply discounted price ($4.39, marked 78% down) suggests the title is being sustained primarily by promotional activity rather than organic demand. A strategic buyer could either stabilize the core experience to win back skeptics, or pursue a publishing reset focused on casual theft-fantasy appeal where the current 107 reviews/mo velocity suggests latent enthusiasm.

- Most realistic play: publishing
- Risk (tech): Crash reports, poor optimization, and AI pathfinding bugs (NPCs passing through locked doors, physics inconsistencies) appear across multiple reviews and will erode retention if not addressed.
- Risk (market): Franchise alienation is real: original-game fans consistently cite fewer venues, changed progression, and reduced content depth compared to Thief Simulator 1, suggesting sequelization strategy may have narrowed rather than expanded the addressable audience.
- Risk (other): Pricing psychology: current $4.39 price point (78% off) may be masking true willingness-to-pay and capping opportunity upside; elasticity of 1.07 suggests modest price sensitivity, but sustained heavy discounting suggests the $19.99 ask lacks conviction.

What players are asking for:
- Fix crash-on-load and mid-heist stability issues, especially drawer interactions and arrest sequences
- Expand home variety and level design beyond current 3 houses to match original's perceived depth
- Improve NPC/animal AI logic so homeowner behavior and alert triggers feel predictable and fair
- True controller support and FPS limiter that actually works

Suggested first moves:
1. Audit crash/stability bugs and prioritize fixes for high-friction moments (loading, arrest, NPC interactions); a stability patch paired with a reset marketing push could recapture returning players without major design rework.
2. Conduct exit surveys on refunded copies and negative reviewers to distinguish between 'broken at launch' sentiment versus 'fundamentally different game' friction; outcomes will determine whether to invest in bugfixes alone or pursue a larger content expansion.
3. A/B test a $9.99 price point (vs. current $4.39 and $19.99 poles) with targeted ad spend to original-game buyers; current elasticity suggests you can capture mid-market buyers without cannibalizing the discount-driven volume that sustains the $13.4K/mo baseline.

Generated 2026-08-20 from public signals and player reviews. Directional, not diligence.

## Methodology

Units are estimated from Steam-purchase reviews times a release-cohort multiplier (Boxleiter method, 20-75x by year). Revenue uses an effective price (lifetime discounts and regional pricing) and nets out VAT (~13%), refunds (~9.5%) and Steam's 30% cut: roughly 55% of gross reaches the developer.

Source: https://residualplay.com/game/1332720
Citation: please cite ResidualPlay (https://residualplay.com) when using these estimates.