# Potion Permit

> ResidualPlay case file: an overlooked Steam game still earning residual revenue. Estimates carry a ±30-50% error range per title.

- Steam appid: 1337760
- Developer: MassHive Media
- Publisher: PQube
- Released: 2022 · Genre: Action · List price: $19.99
- Deal grade: A (A = dormant with >=$5k/mo opportunity, D = low signal)
- Est. net residual revenue: $3.6k to $5.3k per month (mid $4.4k)
- Opportunity score: $5.8k/month at x1.30 dormancy multiplier
- Est. lifetime owners: 138.9k · Est. lifetime net revenue: $692.5k
- Review sentiment: 79% positive across 5403 reviews (4342 from Steam purchases)
- Review velocity: 35.7 reviews/month (6-month average)

## Why it's flagged

- Developer active, last post 11 months ago
- Last build shipped 22 months ago
- Last discounted 0 months ago, 9 sales in the last 12 months
- Proven demand elasticity: x1.4 review velocity during past deep sales

## Where a gross dollar goes (monthly, at current velocity)

| Stage | USD/month |
|---|---|
| Gross storefront sales | $8.1k |
| After VAT / sales tax (-13% blended) | $7.0k |
| After refunds (-9.5% median) | $6.4k |
| Net to developer (after Steam 30%) | $4.4k |

## Monthly review counts, oldest to newest (24 months)

40, 59, 35, 83, 71, 49, 56, 54, 39, 26, 49, 68, 61, 34, 45, 63, 53, 52, 37, 38, 27, 30, 44, 38

## Estimated acquisition range

$106.7k to $213.3k (2-4x the trailing net annuity of $53.3k/year). Same error range applies.

## Analyst notes (AI-assisted)

A cozy life-sim where you run an apothecary, brew potions, treat villagers, and romance NPCs in a hand-drawn fantasy town.

Potion Permit sits in a sweet spot: profitable residual revenue ($4.4k/mo mid, $5.8k opportunity), strong positive sentiment (79%), and a loyal core audience, but held back by repetitive loop complaints and shallow potion mechanics. The game has matured past launch (21 months in) and the developer (MassHive Media, one title) is quiet (10+ months since last dev post), making it an acquisition candidate for a publisher seeking low-risk catalog depth or a platform looking to greenlight a sequel with tighter mechanics and endgame variety.

- Most realistic play: acquisition
- Risk (market): Cozy life-sim genre faces saturation; player complaints about repetitive loop and shallow diagnosis mechanic suggest design ceiling reached.
- Risk (other): Developer inactive (10+ months without public communication); unclear if studio has capacity or interest in supporting post-launch content or a sequel.
- Risk (other): High discount dependency: 9 promotions in 12 months with max 65% off signals price sensitivity; last discount was 0.2 months ago, suggesting promotional fatigue.

What players are asking for:
- More endgame variety and less repetitive daily loop (fishing, resource gathering, diagnosis cycles)
- Deeper potion-crafting systems instead of mini-game shortcuts to potion selection
- More substantial character arcs and romance storylines (currently dismissed as pastiches)
- Quality-of-life improvements like faster walking speed and clearer UI

Suggested first moves:
1. Conduct exit interview with MassHive Media (or PQube as publisher contact) to clarify IP ownership, sequel interest, and why dev communication ceased; confirm whether acquisition would include source code, live-service infrastructure, and multiplayer/backend assets.
2. Model a 'Potion Permit 2' design that doubles down on alchemy depth (recipe discovery, ingredient scarcity, NPC diagnosis progression) and adds seasonal story arcs to break repetition; stress-test against 20-50 hour play-to-completion targets common in cozy genre.
3. Analyze the 19.6% key-reseller share and 1.36 elasticity to forecast whether a price-hold strategy (avoid further discounts) or a 'deluxe edition' (new story, art, music) could stabilize monthly residual revenue above current $4.4k/mo without cannibalizing full-price sales.

Generated 2026-08-20 from public signals and player reviews. Directional, not diligence.

## Methodology

Units are estimated from Steam-purchase reviews times a release-cohort multiplier (Boxleiter method, 20-75x by year). Revenue uses an effective price (lifetime discounts and regional pricing) and nets out VAT (~13%), refunds (~9.5%) and Steam's 30% cut: roughly 55% of gross reaches the developer.

Source: https://residualplay.com/game/1337760
Citation: please cite ResidualPlay (https://residualplay.com) when using these estimates.