# Death in the Water 2

> ResidualPlay case file: an overlooked Steam game still earning residual revenue. Estimates carry a ±30-50% error range per title.

- Steam appid: 1338840
- Developer: Lighthouse Games Studio
- Released: 2023 · Genre: Action · List price: $14.99
- Deal grade: B (A = dormant with >=$5k/mo opportunity, D = low signal)
- Est. net residual revenue: $1.1k to $1.7k per month (mid $1.4k)
- Opportunity score: $2.9k/month at x2.10 dormancy multiplier
- Est. lifetime owners: 55.1k · Est. lifetime net revenue: $206.0k
- Review sentiment: 83% positive across 1838 reviews (1722 from Steam purchases)
- Review velocity: 14.8 reviews/month (6-month average)

## Why it's flagged

- Developer silent for 3.0 years
- Studio active elsewhere (4 titles tracked), so this one may welcome a partner
- Last build shipped 3.0 years ago
- Last discounted 1 months ago, 11 sales in the last 12 months

## Where a gross dollar goes (monthly, at current velocity)

| Stage | USD/month |
|---|---|
| Gross storefront sales | $2.5k |
| After VAT / sales tax (-13% blended) | $2.2k |
| After refunds (-9.5% median) | $2.0k |
| Net to developer (after Steam 30%) | $1.4k |

## Monthly review counts, oldest to newest (24 months)

50, 61, 19, 13, 26, 26, 51, 43, 35, 27, 9, 24, 13, 9, 15, 23, 16, 18, 13, 18, 7, 18, 17, 16

## Missed seasonal-sale revenue (modeled)

Skipped 4 Steam seasonal sale window(s) in the last 24 months. Running a -50% discount in those windows is modeled at +$3.3k net in total, assuming a unit uplift of x3.0 (industry-typical for old catalog titles). Same ±30-50% error range applies.

## Estimated acquisition range

$33.3k to $66.5k (2-4x the trailing net annuity of $16.6k/year). Same error range applies.

## Analyst notes (AI-assisted)

A 2023 ocean-survival action game with jungle hunting and shark encounters, sequel to a successful indie title.

Death in the Water 2 has generated $206k lifetime on modest sales (55k units) with strong community sentiment (82.75% positive) and consistent monthly residual revenue of $1,386/mo. The sequel demonstrates player appetite for the franchise and the original's proven concept. Opportunity lies in strategic pricing adjustments (elasticity 1.01 suggests room to test lower price points), targeted marketing to the ocean-survival niche, or acquisition as a quiet genre anchor for a publisher seeking catalog depth without blockbuster overhead.

- Most realistic play: publishing
- Risk (market): Genre-specific appeal limits addressable audience; ocean-survival is a narrow niche with limited seasonal demand signals.
- Risk (tech): 36 months post-launch with no dev communication in 3 years suggests maintenance rather than active development; engine or platform deprecation risk over time.
- Risk (other): 12-month sales velocity (11 units) shows steep decay; franchise momentum may not sustain without sequel or DLC roadmap.

What players are asking for:
- Sequel (Death in the Water 3) confirmation or roadmap
- New map locations and expanded story content
- Quality-of-life: difficulty settings and accessibility options
- Multiplayer or co-op hunting modes

Suggested first moves:
1. Audit the original (Death in the Water 1) sales, reviews and concurrent players to model franchise elasticity and identify cross-promotion or bundle opportunity.
2. Conduct a 30-day pricing test: drop to $9.99 or add a limited-time 33% discount to measure demand elasticity and addressable market size below the current price ceiling.
3. Reach out to Lighthouse Games Studio to explore publishing support (marketing, localization, DLC roadmap) or acquisition of the IP; confirm studio's long-term development intent and technical stability of the codebase.

Generated 2026-08-20 from public signals and player reviews. Directional, not diligence.

## Methodology

Units are estimated from Steam-purchase reviews times a release-cohort multiplier (Boxleiter method, 20-75x by year). Revenue uses an effective price (lifetime discounts and regional pricing) and nets out VAT (~13%), refunds (~9.5%) and Steam's 30% cut: roughly 55% of gross reaches the developer.

Source: https://residualplay.com/game/1338840
Citation: please cite ResidualPlay (https://residualplay.com) when using these estimates.