# Card Shark

> ResidualPlay case file: an overlooked Steam game still earning residual revenue. Estimates carry a ±30-50% error range per title.

- Steam appid: 1371720
- Developer: Nerial
- Publisher: Devolver Digital
- Released: 2022 · Genre: Adventure · List price: $19.99
- Deal grade: A (A = dormant with >=$5k/mo opportunity, D = low signal)
- Est. net residual revenue: $3.3k to $4.9k per month (mid $4.1k)
- Opportunity score: $8.6k/month at x2.10 dormancy multiplier
- Est. lifetime owners: 93.9k · Est. lifetime net revenue: $468.0k
- Review sentiment: 90% positive across 3216 reviews (2934 from Steam purchases)
- Review velocity: 33.0 reviews/month (6-month average)

## Why it's flagged

- Developer silent for 2.7 years
- Studio active elsewhere (8 titles tracked), so this one may welcome a partner
- Last build shipped 4.2 years ago
- Last discounted 1 months ago, 6 sales in the last 12 months
- Proven demand elasticity: x1.9 review velocity during past deep sales

## Where a gross dollar goes (monthly, at current velocity)

| Stage | USD/month |
|---|---|
| Gross storefront sales | $7.5k |
| After VAT / sales tax (-13% blended) | $6.5k |
| After refunds (-9.5% median) | $5.9k |
| Net to developer (after Steam 30%) | $4.1k |

## Monthly review counts, oldest to newest (24 months)

50, 23, 8, 32, 39, 26, 26, 23, 14, 17, 18, 29, 15, 34, 35, 22, 21, 21, 15, 30, 21, 16, 72, 44

## Estimated acquisition range

$98.7k to $197.4k (2-4x the trailing net annuity of $49.3k/year). Same error range applies.

## Methodology

Units are estimated from Steam-purchase reviews times a release-cohort multiplier (Boxleiter method, 20-75x by year). Revenue uses an effective price (lifetime discounts and regional pricing) and nets out VAT (~13%), refunds (~9.5%) and Steam's 30% cut: roughly 55% of gross reaches the developer.

Source: https://residualplay.com/game/1371720
Citation: please cite ResidualPlay (https://residualplay.com) when using these estimates.