# The Lonesome Guild

> ResidualPlay case file: an overlooked Steam game still earning residual revenue. Estimates carry a ±30-50% error range per title.

- Steam appid: 1486450
- Developer: Tiny Bull Studios
- Publisher: DON'T NOD
- Released: 2025 · Genre: Action · List price: $24.99
- Deal grade: C (A = dormant with >=$5k/mo opportunity, D = low signal)
- Est. net residual revenue: $1.4k to $2.1k per month (mid $1.7k)
- Opportunity score: $1.7k/month at x1.00 dormancy multiplier
- Est. lifetime owners: 6.7k · Est. lifetime net revenue: $56.3k
- Review sentiment: 95% positive across 242 reviews (210 from Steam purchases)
- Review velocity: 8.3 reviews/month (6-month average)

## Why it's flagged

- Developer active, last post 5 months ago
- Studio active elsewhere (3 titles tracked), so this one may welcome a partner
- Last build shipped 5 months ago
- Last discounted 0 months ago, 8 sales in the last 12 months

## Where a gross dollar goes (monthly, at current velocity)

| Stage | USD/month |
|---|---|
| Gross storefront sales | $3.2k |
| After VAT / sales tax (-13% blended) | $2.8k |
| After refunds (-9.5% median) | $2.5k |
| Net to developer (after Steam 30%) | $1.7k |

## Monthly review counts, oldest to newest (10 months)

89, 36, 17, 19, 8, 9, 11, 6, 9, 7

## Missed seasonal-sale revenue (modeled)

Skipped 1 Steam seasonal sale window(s) in the last 10 months. Running a -50% discount in those windows is modeled at +$3.8k net in total, assuming a unit uplift of x3.0 (industry-typical for old catalog titles). Same ±30-50% error range applies.

## Markets by review language

- spanish: 2%
- japanese: 1% (game NOT localized in this language)
- schinese: 15%
- brazilian: 1% (game NOT localized in this language)
- french: 8%
- german: 5%
- english: 67%
- koreana: 1% (game NOT localized in this language)

## Methodology

Units are estimated from Steam-purchase reviews times a release-cohort multiplier (Boxleiter method, 20-75x by year). Revenue uses an effective price (lifetime discounts and regional pricing) and nets out VAT (~13%), refunds (~9.5%) and Steam's 30% cut: roughly 55% of gross reaches the developer.

Source: https://residualplay.com/game/1486450
Citation: please cite ResidualPlay (https://residualplay.com) when using these estimates.