# 白马非马 a white horse is not a horse

> ResidualPlay case file: an overlooked Steam game still earning residual revenue. Estimates carry a ±30-50% error range per title.

- Steam appid: 1501970
- Developer: 卧熊工作室
- Released: 2021 · Genre: Adventure · List price: $9.99
- Deal grade: C (A = dormant with >=$5k/mo opportunity, D = low signal)
- Est. net residual revenue: $108 to $162 per month (mid $135)
- Opportunity score: $283/month at x2.10 dormancy multiplier
- Est. lifetime owners: 1.2k · Est. lifetime net revenue: $3.0k
- Review sentiment: 77% positive across 44 reviews (38 from Steam purchases)
- Review velocity: 2.2 reviews/month (6-month average)

## Why it's flagged

- Developer silent for 3.3 years
- Studio inactive: no public activity across 1 tracked titles
- Last build shipped 3.7 years ago
- Store page localized in only 1 language(s)

## Where a gross dollar goes (monthly, at current velocity)

| Stage | USD/month |
|---|---|
| Gross storefront sales | $245 |
| After VAT / sales tax (-13% blended) | $213 |
| After refunds (-9.5% median) | $193 |
| Net to developer (after Steam 30%) | $135 |

## Monthly review counts, oldest to newest (12 months)

9, 10, 2, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 2, 6, 1, 1

## Methodology

Units are estimated from Steam-purchase reviews times a release-cohort multiplier (Boxleiter method, 20-75x by year). Revenue uses an effective price (lifetime discounts and regional pricing) and nets out VAT (~13%), refunds (~9.5%) and Steam's 30% cut: roughly 55% of gross reaches the developer.

Source: https://residualplay.com/game/1501970
Citation: please cite ResidualPlay (https://residualplay.com) when using these estimates.