# Märchen Forest

> ResidualPlay case file: an overlooked Steam game still earning residual revenue. Estimates carry a ±30-50% error range per title.

- Steam appid: 1507720
- Developer: PrimaryOrbit
- Publisher: Clouded Leopard Entertainment
- Released: 2021 · Genre: Adventure · List price: $34.99
- Deal grade: B (A = dormant with >=$5k/mo opportunity, D = low signal)
- Est. net residual revenue: $698 to $1.0k per month (mid $872)
- Opportunity score: $1.4k/month at x1.60 dormancy multiplier
- Est. lifetime owners: 12.1k · Est. lifetime net revenue: $105.5k
- Review sentiment: 81% positive across 408 reviews (378 from Steam purchases)
- Review velocity: 4.0 reviews/month (6-month average)

## Why it's flagged

- Developer silent for 4.3 years
- Studio quiet across its whole catalog
- Last build shipped 17 months ago

## Where a gross dollar goes (monthly, at current velocity)

| Stage | USD/month |
|---|---|
| Gross storefront sales | $1.6k |
| After VAT / sales tax (-13% blended) | $1.4k |
| After refunds (-9.5% median) | $1.2k |
| Net to developer (after Steam 30%) | $872 |

## Monthly review counts, oldest to newest (24 months)

1, 3, 3, 1, 8, 7, 2, 3, 4, 3, 5, 3, 3, 4, 6, 1, 3, 2, 2, 1, 1, 10, 7, 3

## Estimated acquisition range

$20.9k to $41.9k (2-4x the trailing net annuity of $10.5k/year). Same error range applies.

## Methodology

Units are estimated from Steam-purchase reviews times a release-cohort multiplier (Boxleiter method, 20-75x by year). Revenue uses an effective price (lifetime discounts and regional pricing) and nets out VAT (~13%), refunds (~9.5%) and Steam's 30% cut: roughly 55% of gross reaches the developer.

Source: https://residualplay.com/game/1507720
Citation: please cite ResidualPlay (https://residualplay.com) when using these estimates.