# Cairn

> ResidualPlay case file: an overlooked Steam game still earning residual revenue. Estimates carry a ±30-50% error range per title.

- Steam appid: 1588550
- Developer: The Game Bakers
- Released: 2026 · Genre: Action · List price: $29.99
- Deal grade: C (A = dormant with >=$5k/mo opportunity, D = low signal)
- Est. net residual revenue: $390.6k to $585.9k per month (mid $488.3k)
- Opportunity score: $488.3k/month at x1.00 dormancy multiplier
- Est. lifetime owners: 569.6k · Est. lifetime net revenue: $5.7M
- Review sentiment: 94% positive across 21163 reviews (17800 from Steam purchases)
- Review velocity: 1942.2 reviews/month (6-month average)

## Why it's flagged

- Developer active, last post 1 months ago
- Studio active elsewhere (3 titles tracked), so this one may welcome a partner
- Last build shipped 2 months ago
- Last discounted 0 months ago, 6 sales in the last 12 months

## Where a gross dollar goes (monthly, at current velocity)

| Stage | USD/month |
|---|---|
| Gross storefront sales | $886.4k |
| After VAT / sales tax (-13% blended) | $771.2k |
| After refunds (-9.5% median) | $697.9k |
| Net to developer (after Steam 30%) | $488.3k |

## Monthly review counts, oldest to newest (7 months)

6090, 6486, 1719, 1291, 640, 744, 773

## Missed seasonal-sale revenue (modeled)

Skipped 1 Steam seasonal sale window(s) in the last 7 months. Running a -50% discount in those windows is modeled at +$765.5k net in total, assuming a unit uplift of x3.0 (industry-typical for old catalog titles). Same ±30-50% error range applies.

## Markets by review language

- french: 7%
- german: 3%
- english: 57%
- koreana: 1%
- spanish: 4%
- japanese: 3%
- brazilian: 2% (game NOT localized in this language)
- russian: 10%
- schinese: 14%

## Methodology

Units are estimated from Steam-purchase reviews times a release-cohort multiplier (Boxleiter method, 20-75x by year). Revenue uses an effective price (lifetime discounts and regional pricing) and nets out VAT (~13%), refunds (~9.5%) and Steam's 30% cut: roughly 55% of gross reaches the developer.

Source: https://residualplay.com/game/1588550
Citation: please cite ResidualPlay (https://residualplay.com) when using these estimates.