# Broken Arrow

> ResidualPlay case file: an overlooked Steam game still earning residual revenue. Estimates carry a ±30-50% error range per title.

- Steam appid: 1604270
- Developer: Steel Balalaika
- Publisher: Slitherine Ltd.
- Released: 2025 · Genre: Strategy · List price: $49.99
- Deal grade: C (A = dormant with >=$5k/mo opportunity, D = low signal)
- Est. net residual revenue: $257.8k to $386.7k per month (mid $322.3k)
- Opportunity score: $322.3k/month at x1.00 dormancy multiplier
- Est. lifetime owners: 804.5k · Est. lifetime net revenue: $13.5M
- Review sentiment: 55% positive across 34657 reviews (25142 from Steam purchases)
- Review velocity: 769.0 reviews/month (6-month average)

## Why it's flagged

- Developer active, last post 0 months ago
- Last build shipped 0 months ago
- Last discounted 1 months ago, 8 sales in the last 12 months

## Where a gross dollar goes (monthly, at current velocity)

| Stage | USD/month |
|---|---|
| Gross storefront sales | $585.0k |
| After VAT / sales tax (-13% blended) | $509.0k |
| After refunds (-9.5% median) | $460.6k |
| Net to developer (after Steam 30%) | $322.3k |

## Monthly review counts, oldest to newest (14 months)

10840, 6812, 1919, 1631, 936, 1515, 830, 451, 408, 871, 677, 466, 1156, 1036

## Missed seasonal-sale revenue (modeled)

Skipped 8 Steam seasonal sale window(s) in the last 14 months. Running a -50% discount in those windows is modeled at +$4.9M net in total, assuming a unit uplift of x3.0 (industry-typical for old catalog titles). Same ±30-50% error range applies.

## Markets by review language

- french: 1%
- german: 4%
- russian: 31%
- schinese: 17%
- brazilian: 1%
- english: 43%
- koreana: 2%
- spanish: 2%
- japanese: 1%

## Methodology

Units are estimated from Steam-purchase reviews times a release-cohort multiplier (Boxleiter method, 20-75x by year). Revenue uses an effective price (lifetime discounts and regional pricing) and nets out VAT (~13%), refunds (~9.5%) and Steam's 30% cut: roughly 55% of gross reaches the developer.

Source: https://residualplay.com/game/1604270
Citation: please cite ResidualPlay (https://residualplay.com) when using these estimates.