# Vermillion - VR Painting

> ResidualPlay case file: an overlooked Steam game still earning residual revenue. Estimates carry a ±30-50% error range per title.

- Steam appid: 1608400
- Developer: Thomas van den Berge
- Released: 2021 · Genre: Casual · List price: $19.99
- Deal grade: B (A = dormant with >=$5k/mo opportunity, D = low signal)
- Est. net residual revenue: $199 to $299 per month (mid $249)
- Opportunity score: $336/month at x1.35 dormancy multiplier
- Est. lifetime owners: 19.9k · Est. lifetime net revenue: $99.2k
- Review sentiment: 97% positive across 656 reviews (622 from Steam purchases)
- Review velocity: 2.0 reviews/month (6-month average)

## Why it's flagged

- Developer silent for 14 months
- Studio quiet across its whole catalog
- Last build shipped 14 months ago
- Last discounted 1 months ago, 8 sales in the last 12 months

## Where a gross dollar goes (monthly, at current velocity)

| Stage | USD/month |
|---|---|
| Gross storefront sales | $452 |
| After VAT / sales tax (-13% blended) | $394 |
| After refunds (-9.5% median) | $356 |
| Net to developer (after Steam 30%) | $249 |

## Monthly review counts, oldest to newest (24 months)

2, 3, 6, 3, 3, 1, 3, 2, 1, 7, 2, 2, 5, 4, 2, 2, 1, 2, 1, 1, 4, 2, 2, 2

## Missed seasonal-sale revenue (modeled)

Skipped 3 Steam seasonal sale window(s) in the last 24 months. Running a -50% discount in those windows is modeled at +$374 net in total, assuming a unit uplift of x3.0 (industry-typical for old catalog titles). Same ±30-50% error range applies.

## Estimated acquisition range

$6.0k to $12.0k (2-4x the trailing net annuity of $3.0k/year). Same error range applies.

## Markets by review language

- french: 1%
- russian: 3%
- japanese: 0%
- brazilian: 1%
- german: 1%
- english: 86%
- koreana: 3%
- spanish: 2%
- schinese: 2%

## Methodology

Units are estimated from Steam-purchase reviews times a release-cohort multiplier (Boxleiter method, 20-75x by year). Revenue uses an effective price (lifetime discounts and regional pricing) and nets out VAT (~13%), refunds (~9.5%) and Steam's 30% cut: roughly 55% of gross reaches the developer.

Source: https://residualplay.com/game/1608400
Citation: please cite ResidualPlay (https://residualplay.com) when using these estimates.