# Coffee Talk Episode 2: Hibiscus & Butterfly

> ResidualPlay case file: an overlooked Steam game still earning residual revenue. Estimates carry a ±30-50% error range per title.

- Steam appid: 1663220
- Developer: Toge Productions
- Released: 2023 · Genre: Adventure · List price: $14.99
- Deal grade: B (A = dormant with >=$5k/mo opportunity, D = low signal)
- Est. net residual revenue: $2.0k to $3.0k per month (mid $2.5k)
- Opportunity score: $3.3k/month at x1.30 dormancy multiplier
- Est. lifetime owners: 79.2k · Est. lifetime net revenue: $296.0k
- Review sentiment: 97% positive across 2771 reviews (2475 from Steam purchases)
- Review velocity: 27.2 reviews/month (6-month average)

## Why it's flagged

- Developer active, last post 3 months ago
- Studio active elsewhere (5 titles tracked), so this one may welcome a partner
- Last build shipped 31 months ago
- Last discounted 0 months ago, 10 sales in the last 12 months

## Where a gross dollar goes (monthly, at current velocity)

| Stage | USD/month |
|---|---|
| Gross storefront sales | $4.6k |
| After VAT / sales tax (-13% blended) | $4.0k |
| After refunds (-9.5% median) | $3.6k |
| Net to developer (after Steam 30%) | $2.5k |

## Monthly review counts, oldest to newest (24 months)

48, 27, 26, 29, 60, 48, 36, 46, 31, 16, 33, 43, 24, 22, 18, 27, 34, 42, 23, 35, 23, 35, 29, 18

## Missed seasonal-sale revenue (modeled)

Skipped 1 Steam seasonal sale window(s) in the last 24 months. Running a -50% discount in those windows is modeled at +$1.5k net in total, assuming a unit uplift of x3.0 (industry-typical for old catalog titles). Same ±30-50% error range applies.

## Estimated acquisition range

$60.9k to $121.8k (2-4x the trailing net annuity of $30.5k/year). Same error range applies.

## Markets by review language

- german: 2%
- english: 48%
- russian: 5%
- schinese: 14%
- brazilian: 13%
- french: 1%
- koreana: 9%
- spanish: 6%
- japanese: 3%

## Analyst notes (AI-assisted)

A narrative-driven coffee shop sim where you serve drinks and listen to characters' interconnected stories across a near-future Southeast Asian city.

Coffee Talk Episode 2 is a quietly strong performer with 96.6% positive reviews and $296k lifetime revenue on modest marketing. The franchise has proven IP legs across console (Game Pass) and PC; residual monthly revenue of $2.5k/mo suggests steady catalog value. For publishers or acquirers interested in cozy narrative games with strong IP positioning in underserved markets, this is a low-risk catalog hold or revival candidate, particularly if the first title and future seasons can be bundled.

- Most realistic play: publishing
- Risk (market): Cozy narrative games face saturation; sequel showed modest growth vs. Episode 1, suggesting franchise ceiling may be lower than initial optimism.
- Risk (other): Game Pass distribution (noted in reviews) has likely capped Steam revenue; future monetization depends on expanding to other platforms or seasons.

What players are asking for:
- More character outcomes and alternate endings (players hunting for 'best endings')
- Deeper story arcs for side characters, especially Freya
- Cross-platform parity and feature parity with console versions

Suggested first moves:
1. Audit franchise health: compare Episode 1 and Episode 2 lifetime revenue, player retention, and console vs. PC split to model Episode 3 viability and bundling strategy.
2. Map developer roadmap: Toge posted 3 months ago; clarify if Season 3 is greenlit and whether live-service content (cosmetics, story DLC) can sustainably extend engagement.
3. Evaluate console expansion: Game Pass presence suggests console audience exists; assess licensing deals with Nintendo, PlayStation, and Epic to unlock incremental residual revenue.

Generated 2026-08-20 from public signals and player reviews. Directional, not diligence.

## Methodology

Units are estimated from Steam-purchase reviews times a release-cohort multiplier (Boxleiter method, 20-75x by year). Revenue uses an effective price (lifetime discounts and regional pricing) and nets out VAT (~13%), refunds (~9.5%) and Steam's 30% cut: roughly 55% of gross reaches the developer.

Source: https://residualplay.com/game/1663220
Citation: please cite ResidualPlay (https://residualplay.com) when using these estimates.