# Black Sheep

> ResidualPlay case file: an overlooked Steam game still earning residual revenue. Estimates carry a ±30-50% error range per title.

- Steam appid: 1682260
- Developer: 完蛋了的国王
- Publisher:  Gamirror Games
- Released: 2022 · Genre: Adventure · List price: $11.99
- Deal grade: C (A = dormant with >=$5k/mo opportunity, D = low signal)
- Est. net residual revenue: $120 to $179 per month (mid $149)
- Opportunity score: $239/month at x1.60 dormancy multiplier
- Est. lifetime owners: 23.6k · Est. lifetime net revenue: $70.7k
- Review sentiment: 53% positive across 796 reviews (739 from Steam purchases)
- Review velocity: 2.0 reviews/month (6-month average)

## Why it's flagged

- Developer silent for 3.7 years
- Studio inactive: no public activity across 1 tracked titles
- Store page localized in only 1 language(s)
- Last discounted 0 months ago, 7 sales in the last 12 months

## Where a gross dollar goes (monthly, at current velocity)

| Stage | USD/month |
|---|---|
| Gross storefront sales | $271 |
| After VAT / sales tax (-13% blended) | $236 |
| After refunds (-9.5% median) | $214 |
| Net to developer (after Steam 30%) | $149 |

## Monthly review counts, oldest to newest (24 months)

1, 3, 2, 2, 3, 5, 3, 3, 1, 3, 1, 2, 0, 2, 3, 0, 1, 5, 1, 3, 1, 1, 2, 4

## Missed seasonal-sale revenue (modeled)

Skipped 4 Steam seasonal sale window(s) in the last 24 months. Running a -50% discount in those windows is modeled at +$411 net in total, assuming a unit uplift of x3.0 (industry-typical for old catalog titles). Same ±30-50% error range applies.

## Methodology

Units are estimated from Steam-purchase reviews times a release-cohort multiplier (Boxleiter method, 20-75x by year). Revenue uses an effective price (lifetime discounts and regional pricing) and nets out VAT (~13%), refunds (~9.5%) and Steam's 30% cut: roughly 55% of gross reaches the developer.

Source: https://residualplay.com/game/1682260
Citation: please cite ResidualPlay (https://residualplay.com) when using these estimates.