# The Expanse: A Telltale Series

> ResidualPlay case file: an overlooked Steam game still earning residual revenue. Estimates carry a ±30-50% error range per title.

- Steam appid: 1708010
- Developer: Deck Nine
- Publisher: Telltale
- Released: 2023 · Genre: Adventure · List price: $24.99
- Deal grade: A (A = dormant with >=$5k/mo opportunity, D = low signal)
- Est. net residual revenue: $4.0k to $6.0k per month (mid $5.0k)
- Opportunity score: $9.5k/month at x1.90 dormancy multiplier
- Est. lifetime owners: 75.1k · Est. lifetime net revenue: $468.2k
- Review sentiment: 76% positive across 2863 reviews (2348 from Steam purchases)
- Review velocity: 32.2 reviews/month (6-month average)

## Why it's flagged

- Developer silent for 2.7 years
- Studio active elsewhere (5 titles tracked), so this one may welcome a partner
- Last build shipped 34 months ago
- Last discounted 0 months ago, 10 sales in the last 12 months
- Proven demand elasticity: x1.6 review velocity during past deep sales

## Where a gross dollar goes (monthly, at current velocity)

| Stage | USD/month |
|---|---|
| Gross storefront sales | $9.1k |
| After VAT / sales tax (-13% blended) | $7.9k |
| After refunds (-9.5% median) | $7.2k |
| Net to developer (after Steam 30%) | $5.0k |

## Monthly review counts, oldest to newest (24 months)

46, 40, 74, 38, 138, 58, 36, 40, 38, 41, 44, 55, 92, 30, 89, 47, 60, 75, 38, 33, 30, 25, 41, 26

## Estimated acquisition range

$120.3k to $240.5k (2-4x the trailing net annuity of $60.1k/year). Same error range applies.

## Markets by review language

- german: 8%
- english: 74%
- koreana: 0% (game NOT localized in this language)
- spanish: 3%
- schinese: 1% (game NOT localized in this language)
- french: 4%
- russian: 6% (game NOT localized in this language)
- japanese: 0% (game NOT localized in this language)
- brazilian: 3% (game NOT localized in this language)

## Analyst notes (AI-assisted)

A narrative adventure based on The Expanse TV series, built around zero-gravity exploration and dialogue-driven storytelling in Telltale's classic choice-based formula.

The Expanse earned $468k lifetime on modest sales (75k units) and still generates $5k/mo in residual revenue despite launching three years ago with zero marketing momentum. The title is sheltered by strong IP recognition and a passionate fanbase, but the save-system friction and limited replayability ceiling mean revival plays are narrow: the real opportunity lies in licensing the experience to streaming platforms or packaging the IP back to Alcon (The Expanse rights holder) for a larger transmedia deal. Deck Nine remains active and the game holds a 75.9% positive rating, signaling solid craft execution masking design frustrations.

- Most realistic play: licensing
- Licensed IP: the game is built on third-party intellectual property
- Risk (licensed_ip): The Expanse TV and book IP is owned by Alcon Entertainment and Amazon Studios; Telltale held only a limited-term game license, now likely expired or near expiry, blocking any sequel or expanded content without renegotiation.
- Risk (tech): Multiple reviews cite broken save/load mechanics and lack of skip-dialogue features; these are core QoL issues that poison replay value and reduce long-tail engagement.
- Risk (market): The title sits at $24.99 full price with 76% max discount history and only 10 sales in the past 12 months; the elasticity figure (1.59) suggests price sensitivity, yet heavy discounting erodes perceived value and cannibalized early adopters.

What players are asking for:
- Save/load system overhaul with proper checkpoint handling
- Skip dialogue and cutscene option for replay runs
- Post-game content or DLC extending the narrative
- Expanded zero-gravity exploration sequences (players loved the mechanic)

Suggested first moves:
1. Audit licensing agreement with Alcon Entertainment to determine remaining term, renewal feasibility, and exclusivity windows; model the cost of renegotiation versus sunsetting the title.
2. Contact Alcon and Amazon Studios to explore bundling the game into The Expanse transmedia deals (physical media, reboot projects, or animated spin-offs); position the game as legacy IP collateral for larger franchise plays.
3. If renewal is viable, commission a targeted UX patch addressing save/skip systems at minimal cost; even a point release could unlock word-of-mouth lift and reduce negative review gravity, extending residual runway another 18-24 months.

Generated 2026-08-20 from public signals and player reviews. Directional, not diligence.

## Methodology

Units are estimated from Steam-purchase reviews times a release-cohort multiplier (Boxleiter method, 20-75x by year). Revenue uses an effective price (lifetime discounts and regional pricing) and nets out VAT (~13%), refunds (~9.5%) and Steam's 30% cut: roughly 55% of gross reaches the developer.

Source: https://residualplay.com/game/1708010
Citation: please cite ResidualPlay (https://residualplay.com) when using these estimates.