# 月に寄りそう乙女の作法

> ResidualPlay case file: an overlooked Steam game still earning residual revenue. Estimates carry a ±30-50% error range per title.

- Steam appid: 1776970
- Developer: Navel
- Publisher: HIKARI FIELD
- Released: 2022 · Genre: Adventure · List price: $39.99
- Deal grade: A (A = dormant with >=$5k/mo opportunity, D = low signal)
- Est. net residual revenue: $8.9k to $13.4k per month (mid $11.2k)
- Opportunity score: $20.7k/month at x1.85 dormancy multiplier
- Est. lifetime owners: 109.4k · Est. lifetime net revenue: $1.1M
- Review sentiment: 97% positive across 4512 reviews (3420 from Steam purchases)
- Review velocity: 44.8 reviews/month (6-month average)

## Why it's flagged

- Developer silent for 16 months
- Studio quiet across its whole catalog
- Last build shipped 4.0 years ago
- Store page localized in only 3 language(s)

## Where a gross dollar goes (monthly, at current velocity)

| Stage | USD/month |
|---|---|
| Gross storefront sales | $20.3k |
| After VAT / sales tax (-13% blended) | $17.7k |
| After refunds (-9.5% median) | $16.0k |
| Net to developer (after Steam 30%) | $11.2k |

## Monthly review counts, oldest to newest (24 months)

71, 49, 45, 50, 50, 62, 43, 53, 27, 87, 49, 49, 51, 42, 59, 62, 63, 40, 54, 60, 37, 47, 29, 42

## Estimated acquisition range

$268.2k to $536.4k (2-4x the trailing net annuity of $134.1k/year). Same error range applies.

## Markets by review language

- koreana: 0% (game NOT localized in this language)
- japanese: 0%
- schinese: 98%
- brazilian: 0% (game NOT localized in this language)
- english: 1% (game NOT localized in this language)

## Analyst notes (AI-assisted)

A visual novel set in a lunar palace where players navigate romance and ritual etiquette across multiple character routes.

Moon Rituals earned $1.09M lifetime on 109K units with 97.5% positive sentiment and steady 44.8 reviews/mo, but residual revenue ($11.2K/mo mid estimate) has plateaued since zero sales in the past 12 months and no developer communication for 16 months. The title is quiet rather than dead, suggesting a primarily Chinese-speaking audience that discovered it post-launch; revival potential exists through localization expansion, merchandising tie-ins, or console ports, but acquirers should verify IP ownership with Navel and understand why sales velocity collapsed despite community goodwill.

- Most realistic play: revival
- Risk (market): Zero sales in past 12 months despite high review volume indicates organic discovery has stalled; paid marketing or platform featuring would likely be required to restart growth.
- Risk (tech): 47.5 months post-launch with no developer activity for 16 months raises questions about ongoing engine support, platform updates, and ability to deliver post-purchase patches.
- Risk (other): Extreme language skew (3,205 Simplified Chinese reviews vs. 27 English) suggests the game succeeded in an unplanned market; western business development infrastructure may be weak or absent.

What players are asking for:
- After Story or epilogue content for protagonist Luna
- Console versions (Switch/PlayStation implied by review tone)
- English localization depth and cultural notes on ritual mechanics
- Character route unlock or fast-track options for replayability

Suggested first moves:
1. Audit IP ownership and publishing rights between Navel and Hikari Field; clarify whether revival or licensing requires publisher consent.
2. Conduct soft market research with the 3,200+ Simplified Chinese reviewers via community channels to understand why sales stopped and what would re-engage them.
3. Evaluate console port feasibility and marketing ROI, as console players may be the untapped western audience; bundle with After Story DLC as a soft relaunch anchor.

Generated 2026-08-20 from public signals and player reviews. Directional, not diligence.

## Methodology

Units are estimated from Steam-purchase reviews times a release-cohort multiplier (Boxleiter method, 20-75x by year). Revenue uses an effective price (lifetime discounts and regional pricing) and nets out VAT (~13%), refunds (~9.5%) and Steam's 30% cut: roughly 55% of gross reaches the developer.

Source: https://residualplay.com/game/1776970
Citation: please cite ResidualPlay (https://residualplay.com) when using these estimates.