# Magical Girl Celesphonia

> ResidualPlay case file: an overlooked Steam game still earning residual revenue. Estimates carry a ±30-50% error range per title.

- Steam appid: 1786790
- Developer: Shimobashira Workshop
- Publisher: Kagura Games
- Released: 2022 · Genre: Adventure · List price: $19.99
- Deal grade: A (A = dormant with >=$5k/mo opportunity, D = low signal)
- Est. net residual revenue: $3.1k to $4.7k per month (mid $3.9k)
- Opportunity score: $5.1k/month at x1.30 dormancy multiplier
- Est. lifetime owners: 98.4k · Est. lifetime net revenue: $490.5k
- Review sentiment: 96% positive across 3166 reviews (3075 from Steam purchases)
- Review velocity: 31.5 reviews/month (6-month average)

## Why it's flagged

- Developer active, last post 6 months ago
- Studio active elsewhere (3 titles tracked), so this one may welcome a partner
- Last build shipped 30 months ago
- Store page localized in only 3 language(s)
- Last discounted 1 months ago, 11 sales in the last 12 months

## Where a gross dollar goes (monthly, at current velocity)

| Stage | USD/month |
|---|---|
| Gross storefront sales | $7.1k |
| After VAT / sales tax (-13% blended) | $6.2k |
| After refunds (-9.5% median) | $5.6k |
| Net to developer (after Steam 30%) | $3.9k |

## Monthly review counts, oldest to newest (24 months)

50, 45, 39, 36, 34, 52, 37, 42, 35, 33, 28, 29, 28, 24, 21, 30, 33, 30, 16, 66, 31, 24, 17, 35

## Missed seasonal-sale revenue (modeled)

Skipped 1 Steam seasonal sale window(s) in the last 24 months. Running a -50% discount in those windows is modeled at +$1.7k net in total, assuming a unit uplift of x3.0 (industry-typical for old catalog titles). Same ±30-50% error range applies.

## Estimated acquisition range

$94.2k to $188.4k (2-4x the trailing net annuity of $47.1k/year). Same error range applies.

## Markets by review language

- schinese: 87%
- brazilian: 0% (game NOT localized in this language)
- french: 0% (game NOT localized in this language)
- koreana: 1% (game NOT localized in this language)
- russian: 1% (game NOT localized in this language)
- japanese: 0%
- german: 0% (game NOT localized in this language)
- english: 10%
- spanish: 1% (game NOT localized in this language)

## Analyst notes (AI-assisted)

A 2022 magical-girl adventure by Shimobashira Workshop published through Kagura Games, built with strong East Asian localization and sustained player engagement.

Celesphonia demonstrates remarkable retention: 95.9% positive rating, 31.5 reviews/month six months post-launch, and $3,925/mo residual revenue on a $490k lifetime base. The title has logged 11 discount promotions in 12 months, suggesting publisher confidence in demand elasticity. For a catalog buyer or regional publisher, this is a quiet earner in a genre (magical-girl adventure) with loyal, long-tail communities; the 2,458 Simplified Chinese reviews signal strong Asia-Pacific traction that mainstream platforms often undercredit.

- Most realistic play: acquisition
- Risk (market): Magical-girl niche skews toward specific regional and demographic audiences; expansion outside East Asia and core fandom may face diminishing returns.
- Risk (tech): 30 months post-launch with no developer posts in 5.6 months; technical debt and platform-parity work (e.g., new Steam features, console ports) may require contractor resources.
- Risk (other): Localization gap in Korean (2.7%) despite 27 Korean reviews suggests untapped upside or translation opportunity.

What players are asking for:
- Console versions (Switch, PlayStation implied by platform parity expectations)
- Story continuation or DLC chapters
- Korean language full support
- Community events or seasonal cosmetics

Suggested first moves:
1. Audit IP clearances and developer/publisher contracts to confirm acquisition eligibility and any backend revenue-share or creator-royalty obligations to Shimobashira.
2. Engage Korean and Simplified Chinese players directly (via forums, Discord, Bilibili) to validate demand for console ports, DLC, and full localization; use their feedback to scope a 12-month revival roadmap.
3. Model sensitivity on discount strategy: 11 promotions in 12 months at -50% max discount; test longer inter-promotion windows and narrower discounts to protect ASP while monitoring churn.

Generated 2026-08-20 from public signals and player reviews. Directional, not diligence.

## Methodology

Units are estimated from Steam-purchase reviews times a release-cohort multiplier (Boxleiter method, 20-75x by year). Revenue uses an effective price (lifetime discounts and regional pricing) and nets out VAT (~13%), refunds (~9.5%) and Steam's 30% cut: roughly 55% of gross reaches the developer.

Source: https://residualplay.com/game/1786790
Citation: please cite ResidualPlay (https://residualplay.com) when using these estimates.