# South of the Circle

> ResidualPlay case file: an overlooked Steam game still earning residual revenue. Estimates carry a ±30-50% error range per title.

- Steam appid: 1811040
- Developer: State of Play
- Publisher: 11 bit studios
- Released: 2022 · Genre: Adventure · List price: $12.99
- Deal grade: B (A = dormant with >=$5k/mo opportunity, D = low signal)
- Est. net residual revenue: $1.3k to $1.9k per month (mid $1.6k)
- Opportunity score: $3.3k/month at x2.10 dormancy multiplier
- Est. lifetime owners: 42.7k · Est. lifetime net revenue: $138.3k
- Review sentiment: 85% positive across 1724 reviews (1334 from Steam purchases)
- Review velocity: 19.7 reviews/month (6-month average)

## Why it's flagged

- Developer silent for 3.1 years
- Studio inactive: no public activity across 2 tracked titles
- Last build shipped 3.7 years ago

## Where a gross dollar goes (monthly, at current velocity)

| Stage | USD/month |
|---|---|
| Gross storefront sales | $2.9k |
| After VAT / sales tax (-13% blended) | $2.5k |
| After refunds (-9.5% median) | $2.3k |
| Net to developer (after Steam 30%) | $1.6k |

## Monthly review counts, oldest to newest (24 months)

21, 21, 17, 15, 18, 21, 9, 12, 9, 4, 9, 10, 28, 12, 26, 10, 20, 19, 13, 30, 16, 18, 20, 21

## Estimated acquisition range

$38.2k to $76.4k (2-4x the trailing net annuity of $19.1k/year). Same error range applies.

## Markets by review language

- german: 1%
- english: 27%
- japanese: 1%
- schinese: 55%
- brazilian: 3% (game NOT localized in this language)
- french: 2%
- koreana: 1%
- russian: 9%
- spanish: 1%

## Analyst notes (AI-assisted)

A narrative-driven adventure set in Antarctica following two former lovers reconnecting across decades, built by State of Play and published by 11 bit studios.

South of the Circle earned $138k lifetime on 42k units sold and maintains steady monthly residual revenue of $1.6k/mo, suggesting a durable audience for quiet, character-focused storytelling. The 85% positive rating and sustained review activity (20/mo average) indicate genuine player attachment despite the studio's dormancy for 37 months. The game is a lightweight acquisition candidate for a publisher seeking catalog depth in narrative adventure; revival potential exists only if a new studio acquires both IP and franchise rights, a scenario unlikely given the modest upside and developer silence.

- Most realistic play: publishing
- Risk (tech): Built 44 months ago; no updates or developer communication since January 2022 raises uncertainty around engine stability and platform maintenance as OS targets shift.
- Risk (market): Narrative adventure genre faces increasing competition; the game's linear storytelling (acknowledged in negative reviews) limits replay value and word-of-mouth growth despite high satisfaction.
- Risk (other): Developer listed as 'ghost' status with only two titles; acquiring the game does not grant access to an active studio capable of updates or sequels.

What players are asking for:
- Meaningful branching choices that actually reshape the narrative and ending
- Faster pacing or ability to skip non-critical walking sequences
- Mod support or developer commentary on design decisions

Suggested first moves:
1. Audit the game's code and platform certifications (especially console versions if applicable) to confirm technical stability under current OS/middleware versions before committing to long-term hosting.
2. Analyze the 22.6% key-reseller share to identify whether gray-market discounting is suppressing full-price sales; evaluate whether tighter key management or limited-time promotions could lift residual revenue above $1.6k/mo.
3. Interview the top 10-20 most-helpful English reviewers and Chinese-language players (683 reviews) to understand what drives continued engagement despite narrative design complaints, informing any future marketing or soft-relaunch strategy.

Generated 2026-08-20 from public signals and player reviews. Directional, not diligence.

## Methodology

Units are estimated from Steam-purchase reviews times a release-cohort multiplier (Boxleiter method, 20-75x by year). Revenue uses an effective price (lifetime discounts and regional pricing) and nets out VAT (~13%), refunds (~9.5%) and Steam's 30% cut: roughly 55% of gross reaches the developer.

Source: https://residualplay.com/game/1811040
Citation: please cite ResidualPlay (https://residualplay.com) when using these estimates.