# Wildfrost

> ResidualPlay case file: an overlooked Steam game still earning residual revenue. Estimates carry a ±30-50% error range per title.

- Steam appid: 1811990
- Developer: Deadpan Games
- Publisher: Chucklefish
- Released: 2023 · Genre: Indie · List price: $19.99
- Deal grade: A (A = dormant with >=$5k/mo opportunity, D = low signal)
- Est. net residual revenue: $3.1k to $4.6k per month (mid $3.8k)
- Opportunity score: $5.2k/month at x1.35 dormancy multiplier
- Est. lifetime owners: 260.7k · Est. lifetime net revenue: $1.3M
- Review sentiment: 83% positive across 8821 reviews (8148 from Steam purchases)
- Review velocity: 30.8 reviews/month (6-month average)

## Why it's flagged

- Developer silent for 22 months
- Studio active elsewhere (2 titles tracked), so this one may welcome a partner
- Last build shipped 9 months ago

## Where a gross dollar goes (monthly, at current velocity)

| Stage | USD/month |
|---|---|
| Gross storefront sales | $7.0k |
| After VAT / sales tax (-13% blended) | $6.1k |
| After refunds (-9.5% median) | $5.5k |
| Net to developer (after Steam 30%) | $3.8k |

## Monthly review counts, oldest to newest (24 months)

134, 95, 67, 96, 101, 81, 61, 53, 68, 43, 49, 60, 58, 47, 45, 47, 37, 42, 35, 34, 19, 37, 20, 40

## Estimated acquisition range

$92.2k to $184.4k (2-4x the trailing net annuity of $46.1k/year). Same error range applies.

## Markets by review language

- brazilian: 2% (game NOT localized in this language)
- french: 2% (game NOT localized in this language)
- german: 1% (game NOT localized in this language)
- english: 68%
- koreana: 3%
- russian: 1% (game NOT localized in this language)
- spanish: 1% (game NOT localized in this language)
- japanese: 3%
- schinese: 19%

## Analyst notes (AI-assisted)

Wildfrost is a cozy deck-building roguelike with lane-based minion placement and difficulty-tuned challenge that launched in early access and continues to generate steady residual revenue two years post-release.

This indie title sits in a proven market niche (roguelike deckbuilders post-Slay the Spire) with strong core metrics: 260k+ lifetime units, 83% positive reviews, and $3.8k/mo residual revenue. Community sentiment is stable and engaged despite development dormancy. For publishers or acquiring studios, the appeal lies in modest but consistent cash flow, a moddable architecture that sustains engagement, and a compact design that performed well across Asian markets (Simplified Chinese, Japanese, Korean reviews account for ~45% of total review volume). Revival or publishing partnerships are the realistic play, not acquisition.

- Most realistic play: revival
- Risk (market): Roguelike deckbuilder genre is crowded and maturing; Wildfrost's positioning as cozy/cute differentiates but may limit upside in a saturated space.
- Risk (tech): Developer dormancy for 21+ months (no public post since ~October 2023) raises questions about platform support, bug fixes, and mod infrastructure sustainability.
- Risk (other): Player friction around limited save-scumming, quick-restart mechanics, and charm-unlock gating suggests design decisions that tier the audience; balancing accessibility against designer intent will be key to growth.

What players are asking for:
- Quick restart or save-scumming options for faster iteration and experimentation
- Quality-of-life warning when hero will take fatal damage before turn end
- Faster charm/unlock progression to reduce early-game friction
- Expanded late-game content or challenge modes to extend lifespan beyond 50–100 hours

Suggested first moves:
1. Audit mod ecosystem, platform stability, and player support pipeline; gauge cost and effort to resurrect live-ops or seasonal content updates that would justify publisher investment in a 2-year-old title.
2. Conduct regional deep-dive on Asian markets (45% of reviews from China, Japan, Korea) to test thesis that localization or regional publishing partnerships could unlock growth in underserved territories without full Western revival.
3. Evaluate Deadpan Games' IP ownership and appetite for licensing or co-development; if studio is open, a low-touch publishing deal with content support (seasonal cosmetics, mod curation, QoL passes) may be lower-risk than acquisition.

Generated 2026-08-20 from public signals and player reviews. Directional, not diligence.

## Methodology

Units are estimated from Steam-purchase reviews times a release-cohort multiplier (Boxleiter method, 20-75x by year). Revenue uses an effective price (lifetime discounts and regional pricing) and nets out VAT (~13%), refunds (~9.5%) and Steam's 30% cut: roughly 55% of gross reaches the developer.

Source: https://residualplay.com/game/1811990
Citation: please cite ResidualPlay (https://residualplay.com) when using these estimates.