# Progeria: Vae Victis

> ResidualPlay case file: an overlooked Steam game still earning residual revenue. Estimates carry a ±30-50% error range per title.

- Steam appid: 1819890
- Developer: TryhardS
- Released: 2024 · Genre: Adventure · List price: $9.99
- Deal grade: B (A = dormant with >=$5k/mo opportunity, D = low signal)
- Est. net residual revenue: $195 to $292 per month (mid $243)
- Opportunity score: $584/month at x2.40 dormancy multiplier
- Est. lifetime owners: 864 · Est. lifetime net revenue: $2.5k
- Review sentiment: 94% positive across 31 reviews (27 from Steam purchases)
- Review velocity: 3.3 reviews/month (6-month average)

## Why it's flagged

- Developer silent for 2.2 years
- Studio quiet across its whole catalog
- Last build shipped 27 months ago
- Store page localized in only 2 language(s)
- No Steam discount in 2.1 years (deepest tracked: -25%)

## Where a gross dollar goes (monthly, at current velocity)

| Stage | USD/month |
|---|---|
| Gross storefront sales | $442 |
| After VAT / sales tax (-13% blended) | $384 |
| After refunds (-9.5% median) | $348 |
| Net to developer (after Steam 30%) | $243 |

## Monthly review counts, oldest to newest (7 months)

7, 1, 3, 2, 0, 2, 12

## Missed seasonal-sale revenue (modeled)

Skipped 3 Steam seasonal sale window(s) in the last 7 months. Running a -50% discount in those windows is modeled at +$621 net in total, assuming a unit uplift of x3.0 (industry-typical for old catalog titles). Same ±30-50% error range applies.

## Estimated acquisition range

$5.8k to $11.7k (2-4x the trailing net annuity of $2.9k/year). Same error range applies.

## Markets by review language

- russian: 48% (game NOT localized in this language)
- schinese: 4% (game NOT localized in this language)
- english: 48%

Localization gap: 52% of measured reviews are written in languages the game does not support (top: russian). Localizing is likely immediate market expansion.

## Methodology

Units are estimated from Steam-purchase reviews times a release-cohort multiplier (Boxleiter method, 20-75x by year). Revenue uses an effective price (lifetime discounts and regional pricing) and nets out VAT (~13%), refunds (~9.5%) and Steam's 30% cut: roughly 55% of gross reaches the developer.

Source: https://residualplay.com/game/1819890
Citation: please cite ResidualPlay (https://residualplay.com) when using these estimates.