# Cardfight!! Vanguard Dear Days

> ResidualPlay case file: an overlooked Steam game still earning residual revenue. Estimates carry a ±30-50% error range per title.

- Steam appid: 1881420
- Developer: FURYU Corporation
- Publisher: Bushiroad Inc.
- Released: 2022 · Genre: Strategy · List price: $69.99
- Deal grade: A (A = dormant with >=$5k/mo opportunity, D = low signal)
- Est. net residual revenue: $8.1k to $12.2k per month (mid $10.2k)
- Opportunity score: $16.3k/month at x1.60 dormancy multiplier
- Est. lifetime owners: 37.9k · Est. lifetime net revenue: $661.2k
- Review sentiment: 76% positive across 1265 reviews (1184 from Steam purchases)
- Review velocity: 23.3 reviews/month (6-month average)

## Why it's flagged

- Developer silent for 3.5 years
- Studio active elsewhere (11 titles tracked), so this one may welcome a partner
- Last build shipped 2 months ago
- Store page localized in only 3 language(s)
- Last discounted 1 months ago, 2 sales in the last 12 months
- Proven demand elasticity: x4.4 review velocity during past deep sales

## Where a gross dollar goes (monthly, at current velocity)

| Stage | USD/month |
|---|---|
| Gross storefront sales | $18.5k |
| After VAT / sales tax (-13% blended) | $16.1k |
| After refunds (-9.5% median) | $14.6k |
| Net to developer (after Steam 30%) | $10.2k |

## Monthly review counts, oldest to newest (24 months)

14, 4, 21, 36, 9, 9, 14, 12, 10, 2, 1, 3, 1, 4, 1, 2, 2, 4, 26, 70, 11, 5, 1, 27

## Missed seasonal-sale revenue (modeled)

Skipped 7 Steam seasonal sale window(s) in the last 24 months. Running a -50% discount in those windows is modeled at +$12.9k net in total, assuming a unit uplift of x4.4 taken from this game's own sale history. Same ±30-50% error range applies.

## Estimated acquisition range

$244.3k to $488.6k (2-4x the trailing net annuity of $122.2k/year). Same error range applies.

## Markets by review language

- french: 0% (game NOT localized in this language)
- german: 1% (game NOT localized in this language)
- english: 80%
- koreana: 2% (game NOT localized in this language)
- spanish: 3% (game NOT localized in this language)
- japanese: 4%
- brazilian: 4% (game NOT localized in this language)
- russian: 0% (game NOT localized in this language)
- schinese: 6%

Localization gap: 11% of measured reviews are written in languages the game does not support (top: brazilian). Localizing is likely immediate market expansion.

## Analyst notes (AI-assisted)

Cardfight!! Vanguard Dear Days is a digital card game adaptation of the TCG, covering the post-Stride rule set for solo and competitive play.

Dear Days sits at an interesting inflection point: it's generating $10.2K/mo residual revenue on a $70 price point with 75% positive sentiment, yet developer communication has been absent for 41 months and sales velocity has flatlined. The title has modest but real engagement (23 reviews/mo, 37.9K lifetime units) and benefits from the Vanguard IP's hardcore fanbase, but the franchise's fragmented rule-set history and aggressive pricing relative to free-to-play competitors limit mainstream adoption. Best suited for a publisher willing to stabilize the AI experience, resume seasonal content, and localize for Brazilian Portuguese (10.6% loc gap), or for a licensor evaluating post-Stride TCG vitality.

- Most realistic play: publishing
- Licensed IP: the game is built on third-party intellectual property
- Risk (licensed_ip): Bushiroad Inc. owns Cardfight!! Vanguard IP and likely controls publishing rights; any content or monetization changes require franchisor approval.
- Risk (tech): AI difficulty balance is the single largest complaint in reviews; fixing cheating mechanics or RNG telegraphing requires substantial code audit.
- Risk (market): Post-Stride rule complexity alienated existing players; the game exists in a narrow lane between TCG hardcores and lapsed fans.
- Risk (other): 41 months of radio silence from developer suggests internal deprioritization; no roadmap or player communication infrastructure in place.

What players are asking for:
- AI fairness and transparency: stop hidden trigger-rate boosts and display opponent mechanic calculations.
- Seasonal content and balance patches to refresh the metagame.
- Cross-platform play or mobile port to reach lapsed TCG players.
- Rule clarification and tutorial expansion for newcomers unfamiliar with post-Stride mechanics.

Suggested first moves:
1. Audit and rebalance AI: publish transparent opponent stat pools and ability trigger rates in a patch, then solicit community feedback on difficulty curve across three tiers.
2. Commission Brazilian Portuguese localization (10.6% gap, 42 reviews in language) and evaluate pricing elasticity (4.37) in a limited regional sale at $25-30 to test volume sensitivity.
3. If Bushiroad partnership remains active, propose a 12-month seasonal roadmap with 2-3 new decks per quarter and monthly balance updates; if licensor has deprioritized, acquire commensurate to lifetime net revenue ($661K) plus 18-month wind-down costs.

Generated 2026-08-20 from public signals and player reviews. Directional, not diligence.

## Methodology

Units are estimated from Steam-purchase reviews times a release-cohort multiplier (Boxleiter method, 20-75x by year). Revenue uses an effective price (lifetime discounts and regional pricing) and nets out VAT (~13%), refunds (~9.5%) and Steam's 30% cut: roughly 55% of gross reaches the developer.

Source: https://residualplay.com/game/1881420
Citation: please cite ResidualPlay (https://residualplay.com) when using these estimates.