# Tales from Toyotoki: Arrival of the Witch (The witch of the Ihanashi)

> ResidualPlay case file: an overlooked Steam game still earning residual revenue. Estimates carry a ±30-50% error range per title.

- Steam appid: 1950570
- Developer: Fragaria
- Released: 2022 · Genre: Adventure · List price: $24.98
- Deal grade: B (A = dormant with >=$5k/mo opportunity, D = low signal)
- Est. net residual revenue: $1.9k to $2.9k per month (mid $2.4k)
- Opportunity score: $3.9k/month at x1.65 dormancy multiplier
- Est. lifetime owners: 27.4k · Est. lifetime net revenue: $170.6k
- Review sentiment: 96% positive across 926 reviews (856 from Steam purchases)
- Review velocity: 15.3 reviews/month (6-month average)

## Why it's flagged

- Developer silent for 22 months
- Studio active elsewhere (2 titles tracked), so this one may welcome a partner
- Last build shipped 22 months ago
- Store page localized in only 4 language(s)

## Where a gross dollar goes (monthly, at current velocity)

| Stage | USD/month |
|---|---|
| Gross storefront sales | $4.3k |
| After VAT / sales tax (-13% blended) | $3.8k |
| After refunds (-9.5% median) | $3.4k |
| Net to developer (after Steam 30%) | $2.4k |

## Monthly review counts, oldest to newest (24 months)

17, 11, 14, 15, 15, 15, 3, 23, 21, 10, 13, 15, 30, 19, 27, 13, 19, 19, 11, 7, 15, 21, 10, 28

## Estimated acquisition range

$57.3k to $114.6k (2-4x the trailing net annuity of $28.7k/year). Same error range applies.

## Markets by review language

- brazilian: 0% (game NOT localized in this language)
- english: 3% (game NOT localized in this language)
- koreana: 19%
- russian: 0% (game NOT localized in this language)
- japanese: 35%
- schinese: 43%

## Analyst notes (AI-assisted)

A 15-20 hour Japanese visual novel about a witch's arrival in a rural village, with voice acting and character-driven narrative.

Tales from Toyotoki is a quiet performer earning $2,388/mo in residual revenue two years post-launch, with a 96% positive rating and strong engagement in East Asian markets (Japanese and Simplified Chinese reviews dominate the 836-review sample). The title's niche appeal, modest install base of ~27k units, and developer radio silence suggest either a completed project or resource constraints at a one-title studio. For a publisher seeking steady catalog revenue with minimal operational lift, or a localization specialist targeting underserved regional markets, this represents a proven but dormant asset worth light reactivation testing.

- Most realistic play: publishing
- Risk (market): VN genre skews niche and regional; core English-speaking playerbase appears modest relative to CJK concentration.
- Risk (tech): No discount activity in 22+ months and zero sales velocity in the last 12 months suggests the game has fallen out of storefront rotation and may need marketing lift to move units again.
- Risk (other): Developer appears inactive (no posts in 22 months) with only one published title, raising questions about post-launch support capacity or studio viability.

What players are asking for:
- English localization polish (reviews note character-centric story but mention limited cast with voice acting)
- Expanded character roster or additional routes to justify replay value
- Mobile or console ports to reach regional audiences on non-PC platforms

Suggested first moves:
1. Audit regional revenue split (Japan/China vs. rest-of-world) to validate whether a regional relaunch or console port strategy is viable before committing to wider marketing.
2. Contact Fragaria to clarify developer status and willingness to support patches, translations, or console ports; if dormant, establish rights clarity for independent marketing campaigns.
3. Test a modest regional discount (10-15%) or bundle placement in East Asian storefronts to measure price elasticity (-1 suggests inelastic demand, but regional targeting may unlock new cohorts).

Generated 2026-08-20 from public signals and player reviews. Directional, not diligence.

## Methodology

Units are estimated from Steam-purchase reviews times a release-cohort multiplier (Boxleiter method, 20-75x by year). Revenue uses an effective price (lifetime discounts and regional pricing) and nets out VAT (~13%), refunds (~9.5%) and Steam's 30% cut: roughly 55% of gross reaches the developer.

Source: https://residualplay.com/game/1950570
Citation: please cite ResidualPlay (https://residualplay.com) when using these estimates.