# The Oregon Trail

> ResidualPlay case file: an overlooked Steam game still earning residual revenue. Estimates carry a ±30-50% error range per title.

- Steam appid: 2013360
- Developer: Gameloft
- Released: 2022 · Genre: Adventure · List price: $29.99
- Deal grade: B (A = dormant with >=$5k/mo opportunity, D = low signal)
- Est. net residual revenue: $2.9k to $4.4k per month (mid $3.6k)
- Opportunity score: $4.7k/month at x1.30 dormancy multiplier
- Est. lifetime owners: 38.5k · Est. lifetime net revenue: $288.1k
- Review sentiment: 79% positive across 1278 reviews (1204 from Steam purchases)
- Review velocity: 19.5 reviews/month (6-month average)

## Why it's flagged

- Developer active, last post 9 months ago
- Studio active elsewhere (3 titles tracked), so this one may welcome a partner
- Last build shipped 23 months ago
- Last discounted 1 months ago, 9 sales in the last 12 months
- Proven demand elasticity: x1.5 review velocity during past deep sales

## Where a gross dollar goes (monthly, at current velocity)

| Stage | USD/month |
|---|---|
| Gross storefront sales | $6.6k |
| After VAT / sales tax (-13% blended) | $5.8k |
| After refunds (-9.5% median) | $5.2k |
| Net to developer (after Steam 30%) | $3.6k |

## Monthly review counts, oldest to newest (24 months)

11, 14, 5, 28, 29, 28, 14, 19, 19, 19, 21, 23, 16, 13, 26, 28, 21, 24, 22, 18, 9, 9, 33, 26

## Estimated acquisition range

$87.5k to $175.0k (2-4x the trailing net annuity of $43.7k/year). Same error range applies.

## Markets by review language

- english: 89%
- russian: 2%
- spanish: 0%
- japanese: 0%
- schinese: 0%
- brazilian: 0%
- french: 1%
- german: 2%
- koreana: 4%

## Analyst notes (AI-assisted)

A 2022 Gameloft remake of the classic educational computer game The Oregon Trail, blending turn-based exploration, resource management, and minigames with pixel-art aesthetics.

The Oregon Trail sits at $3.6k/mo residual revenue on a modest $288k lifetime base, driven by strong nostalgia appeal (79% positive) and steady organic word-of-mouth. The title is quiet but stable: 9 promotions in 12 months, zero dev communication in 8+ months, and a 23-month-old build suggest Gameloft is in light-maintenance mode. For a publishing or revival partner, the opportunity lies in revitalizing community engagement (reviews holding steady at 19.5/mo despite dormancy) and testing expansion hooks: DLC, platform ports, or a bundle with the original MECC archive.

- Most realistic play: publishing
- Licensed IP: the game is built on third-party intellectual property
- Risk (licensed_ip): The Oregon Trail intellectual property is owned by The Learning Company (successor to MECC); Gameloft holds only a license to develop and publish, narrowing scope for strategic acquisition or long-term IP control.
- Risk (market): Price-sensitivity is acute: players consistently note the $30 MSRP feels high relative to perceived value, and the game thrives on discount sales (67% max recorded, 9 promotions per year).
- Risk (tech): No developer posts in 8.8 months and no platform expansion since launch suggests the title is not receiving active feature development, creating risk of stagnation if community expectations evolve.

What players are asking for:
- An official remake or port of The Oregon Trail 2 (Deluxe version mentioned by multiple players as the franchise high-water mark).
- Improved hunting and fishing minigames; current implementations seen as simplistic or tedious compared to original.
- Clarity on resource scarcity logic and bug fixes (e.g., water-finding bug cited in negative reviews).
- Bundle or discounted access to the original MECC versions for historical completeness.

Suggested first moves:
1. Audit The Learning Company's licensing terms to identify greenlight triggers for: a DLC expansion (Oregon Trail 2 content), a console port bundle, or a VR/mobile spinoff that could unlock new player cohorts without cannibalizing the core $30 SKU.
2. Launch a low-cost content refresh: a patch addressing the water-logic and minigame complaints, paired with a 2-4 week dev blog series recapping player feedback. This requires minimal budget but resets the perception of abandonment and can lift reviews_per_month from 19.5 to 25+.
3. Test a 'education and entertainment bundle' with indie educational titles or a curated MECC archive to reposition the title beyond nostalgia-only appeal and justify the $30 price point for new players and institutions (schools, libraries).

Generated 2026-08-20 from public signals and player reviews. Directional, not diligence.

## Methodology

Units are estimated from Steam-purchase reviews times a release-cohort multiplier (Boxleiter method, 20-75x by year). Revenue uses an effective price (lifetime discounts and regional pricing) and nets out VAT (~13%), refunds (~9.5%) and Steam's 30% cut: roughly 55% of gross reaches the developer.

Source: https://residualplay.com/game/2013360
Citation: please cite ResidualPlay (https://residualplay.com) when using these estimates.