# Ars Notoria

> ResidualPlay case file: an overlooked Steam game still earning residual revenue. Estimates carry a ±30-50% error range per title.

- Steam appid: 2074620
- Developer: XRON Software
- Publisher: Lilith Games
- Released: 2025 · Genre: Action · List price: $19.99
- Deal grade: D (A = dormant with >=$5k/mo opportunity, D = low signal)
- Est. net residual revenue: $760 to $1.1k per month (mid $950)
- Opportunity score: $950/month at x1.00 dormancy multiplier
- Est. lifetime owners: 9.3k · Est. lifetime net revenue: $62.6k
- Review sentiment: 62% positive across 312 reviews (292 from Steam purchases)
- Review velocity: 5.7 reviews/month (6-month average)

## Why it's flagged

- Developer active, last post 1 months ago
- Last build shipped 1 months ago
- Last discounted 1 months ago, 4 sales in the last 12 months

## Where a gross dollar goes (monthly, at current velocity)

| Stage | USD/month |
|---|---|
| Gross storefront sales | $1.7k |
| After VAT / sales tax (-13% blended) | $1.5k |
| After refunds (-9.5% median) | $1.4k |
| Net to developer (after Steam 30%) | $950 |

## Monthly review counts, oldest to newest (9 months)

172, 68, 25, 6, 8, 5, 8, 4, 3

## Missed seasonal-sale revenue (modeled)

Skipped 3 Steam seasonal sale window(s) in the last 9 months. Running a -50% discount in those windows is modeled at +$22.2k net in total, assuming a unit uplift of x3.0 (industry-typical for old catalog titles). Same ±30-50% error range applies.

## Markets by review language

- german: 4% (game NOT localized in this language)
- english: 48%
- koreana: 3%
- russian: 7% (game NOT localized in this language)
- spanish: 2% (game NOT localized in this language)
- japanese: 4%
- schinese: 33%
- french: 1% (game NOT localized in this language)
- brazilian: 0% (game NOT localized in this language)

Localization gap: 13% of measured reviews are written in languages the game does not support (top: russian). Localizing is likely immediate market expansion.

## Methodology

Units are estimated from Steam-purchase reviews times a release-cohort multiplier (Boxleiter method, 20-75x by year). Revenue uses an effective price (lifetime discounts and regional pricing) and nets out VAT (~13%), refunds (~9.5%) and Steam's 30% cut: roughly 55% of gross reaches the developer.

Source: https://residualplay.com/game/2074620
Citation: please cite ResidualPlay (https://residualplay.com) when using these estimates.