# Just a To the Moon Series Beach Episode

> ResidualPlay case file: an overlooked Steam game still earning residual revenue. Estimates carry a ±30-50% error range per title.

- Steam appid: 2159210
- Developer: Freebird Games
- Released: 2024 · Genre: Adventure · List price: $7.99
- Deal grade: B (A = dormant with >=$5k/mo opportunity, D = low signal)
- Est. net residual revenue: $2.8k to $4.1k per month (mid $3.5k)
- Opportunity score: $4.7k/month at x1.35 dormancy multiplier
- Est. lifetime owners: 120.7k · Est. lifetime net revenue: $282.0k
- Review sentiment: 98% positive across 3963 reviews (3773 from Steam purchases)
- Review velocity: 59.2 reviews/month (6-month average)

## Why it's flagged

- Developer silent for 14 months
- Studio active elsewhere (5 titles tracked), so this one may welcome a partner
- Last build shipped 13 months ago
- Last discounted 1 months ago, 8 sales in the last 12 months

## Where a gross dollar goes (monthly, at current velocity)

| Stage | USD/month |
|---|---|
| Gross storefront sales | $6.3k |
| After VAT / sales tax (-13% blended) | $5.5k |
| After refunds (-9.5% median) | $4.9k |
| Net to developer (after Steam 30%) | $3.5k |

## Monthly review counts, oldest to newest (23 months)

1471, 285, 319, 157, 127, 151, 183, 60, 92, 112, 127, 67, 55, 104, 50, 78, 71, 84, 57, 29, 55, 56, 74

## Missed seasonal-sale revenue (modeled)

Skipped 4 Steam seasonal sale window(s) in the last 23 months. Running a -50% discount in those windows is modeled at +$16.6k net in total, assuming a unit uplift of x3.0 (industry-typical for old catalog titles). Same ±30-50% error range applies.

## Estimated acquisition range

$82.9k to $165.8k (2-4x the trailing net annuity of $41.5k/year). Same error range applies.

## Markets by review language

- german: 1%
- english: 34%
- russian: 7%
- japanese: 0% (game NOT localized in this language)
- schinese: 42%
- brazilian: 5%
- french: 1%
- koreana: 8%
- spanish: 2%

## Analyst notes (AI-assisted)

A narrative adventure and the latest entry in Freebird Games' acclaimed To the Moon series, blending a cheerful beach setting with emotionally devastating storytelling.

This 2024 release maintains the franchise's exceptional review score (98.3% positive) and continues generating $3,454.88/mo in residual revenue, despite modest mainstream visibility and minimal marketing activity in the past 13 months. The title demonstrates durable IP equity and a deeply engaged, multilingual playerbase, making it a strong candidate for catalog acquisition by a publisher seeking high-margin, low-maintenance narrative franchises or for revival campaigns targeting dormant media-adaptation opportunities.

- Most realistic play: acquisition
- Risk (market): Niche narrative adventure genre with 98.3% positive sentiment but only 59 reviews/mo suggests a ceiling on mainstream growth; elasticity of 0.31 indicates pricing leverage is limited.
- Risk (other): Developer has been silent for ~14 months post-launch; no recent patches, updates, or engagement visible, raising questions about post-launch support or sequel pipeline clarity.
- Risk (tech): Build is 12+ months old; Japanese localization gap (2.8%) and small player base in some languages suggest incomplete regional optimization.

What players are asking for:
- Multi-media adaptations (film, TV, new game formats) beyond pixel art
- Final game in the series confirmation and timeline
- Accessibility and harder/longer content options
- Merchandise and expanded universe storytelling

Suggested first moves:
1. Audit full IP ownership and sequencing roadmap with Freebird Games; confirm whether outstanding final title is in production and whether publishing/distribution rights are available for acquisition or co-publishing.
2. Commission third-party localization audit, especially for Japanese and Korean markets (largest review volume after English/Simplified Chinese), to identify low-cost regional growth plays.
3. Evaluate acquisition of the complete back-catalog (5 titles) as a bundle to unlock media-adaptation optionality; the franchise's emotional throughline and cross-generational appeal suggest film/prestige TV viability at modest risk.

Generated 2026-08-20 from public signals and player reviews. Directional, not diligence.

## Methodology

Units are estimated from Steam-purchase reviews times a release-cohort multiplier (Boxleiter method, 20-75x by year). Revenue uses an effective price (lifetime discounts and regional pricing) and nets out VAT (~13%), refunds (~9.5%) and Steam's 30% cut: roughly 55% of gross reaches the developer.

Source: https://residualplay.com/game/2159210
Citation: please cite ResidualPlay (https://residualplay.com) when using these estimates.