# Azazel's Christmas Fable

> ResidualPlay case file: an overlooked Steam game still earning residual revenue. Estimates carry a ±30-50% error range per title.

- Steam appid: 2163620
- Developer: Greg Muhlbock
- Released: 2022 · Genre: Adventure · List price: $8.99
- Deal grade: C (A = dormant with >=$5k/mo opportunity, D = low signal)
- Est. net residual revenue: $149 to $224 per month (mid $187)
- Opportunity score: $290/month at x1.55 dormancy multiplier
- Est. lifetime owners: 3.3k · Est. lifetime net revenue: $7.5k
- Review sentiment: 100% positive across 123 reviews (104 from Steam purchases)
- Review velocity: 3.3 reviews/month (6-month average)

## Why it's flagged

- Developer active, last post 9 months ago
- Last build shipped 21 months ago
- Store page localized in only 2 language(s)
- Last discounted 8 months ago, 3 sales in the last 12 months
- Proven demand elasticity: x5.3 review velocity during past deep sales

## Where a gross dollar goes (monthly, at current velocity)

| Stage | USD/month |
|---|---|
| Gross storefront sales | $339 |
| After VAT / sales tax (-13% blended) | $295 |
| After refunds (-9.5% median) | $267 |
| Net to developer (after Steam 30%) | $187 |

## Monthly review counts, oldest to newest (21 months)

0, 25, 4, 1, 0, 1, 3, 32, 9, 1, 3, 0, 1, 2, 1, 8, 3, 1, 5, 2, 1

## Missed seasonal-sale revenue (modeled)

Skipped 11 Steam seasonal sale window(s) in the last 21 months. Running a -50% discount in those windows is modeled at +$4.5k net in total, assuming a unit uplift of x5.3 taken from this game's own sale history. Same ±30-50% error range applies.

## Methodology

Units are estimated from Steam-purchase reviews times a release-cohort multiplier (Boxleiter method, 20-75x by year). Revenue uses an effective price (lifetime discounts and regional pricing) and nets out VAT (~13%), refunds (~9.5%) and Steam's 30% cut: roughly 55% of gross reaches the developer.

Source: https://residualplay.com/game/2163620
Citation: please cite ResidualPlay (https://residualplay.com) when using these estimates.