# Until Dawn™

> ResidualPlay case file: an overlooked Steam game still earning residual revenue. Estimates carry a ±30-50% error range per title.

- Steam appid: 2172010
- Developer: Ballistic Moon
- Publisher: PlayStation Publishing LLC
- Released: 2024 · Genre: Adventure · List price: $59.99
- Deal grade: A (A = dormant with >=$5k/mo opportunity, D = low signal)
- Est. net residual revenue: $36.5k to $54.8k per month (mid $45.7k)
- Opportunity score: $61.7k/month at x1.35 dormancy multiplier
- Est. lifetime owners: 112.7k · Est. lifetime net revenue: $2.0M
- Review sentiment: 83% positive across 5202 reviews (3523 from Steam purchases)
- Review velocity: 104.2 reviews/month (6-month average)

## Why it's flagged

- Developer silent for 21 months
- Last build shipped 11 months ago

## Where a gross dollar goes (monthly, at current velocity)

| Stage | USD/month |
|---|---|
| Gross storefront sales | $82.9k |
| After VAT / sales tax (-13% blended) | $72.1k |
| After refunds (-9.5% median) | $65.3k |
| Net to developer (after Steam 30%) | $45.7k |

## Monthly review counts, oldest to newest (22 months)

1196, 257, 109, 109, 63, 109, 73, 84, 106, 129, 72, 47, 103, 202, 185, 179, 121, 89, 69, 72, 105, 169

## Estimated acquisition range

$1.1M to $2.2M (2-4x the trailing net annuity of $548.0k/year). Same error range applies.

## Markets by review language

- spanish: 3% (game NOT localized in this language)
- japanese: 0%
- french: 3%
- english: 70%
- koreana: 2%
- russian: 6%
- schinese: 6%
- brazilian: 5%
- german: 5%

## Methodology

Units are estimated from Steam-purchase reviews times a release-cohort multiplier (Boxleiter method, 20-75x by year). Revenue uses an effective price (lifetime discounts and regional pricing) and nets out VAT (~13%), refunds (~9.5%) and Steam's 30% cut: roughly 55% of gross reaches the developer.

Source: https://residualplay.com/game/2172010
Citation: please cite ResidualPlay (https://residualplay.com) when using these estimates.