# Guild Saga: Vanished Worlds

> ResidualPlay case file: an overlooked Steam game still earning residual revenue. Estimates carry a ±30-50% error range per title.

- Steam appid: 2184350
- Developer: Ocelot
- Released: 2024 · Genre: Adventure · List price: $19.99
- Deal grade: D (A = dormant with >=$5k/mo opportunity, D = low signal)
- Est. net residual revenue: $799 to $1.2k per month (mid $998)
- Opportunity score: $998/month at x1.00 dormancy multiplier
- Est. lifetime owners: 9.8k · Est. lifetime net revenue: $57.2k
- Review sentiment: 87% positive across 341 reviews (306 from Steam purchases)
- Review velocity: 6.8 reviews/month (6-month average)

## Why it's flagged

- Developer active, last post 1 months ago
- Last build shipped 1 months ago
- Store page localized in only 3 language(s)
- Last discounted 1 months ago, 5 sales in the last 12 months

## Where a gross dollar goes (monthly, at current velocity)

| Stage | USD/month |
|---|---|
| Gross storefront sales | $1.8k |
| After VAT / sales tax (-13% blended) | $1.6k |
| After refunds (-9.5% median) | $1.4k |
| Net to developer (after Steam 30%) | $998 |

## Monthly review counts, oldest to newest (22 months)

137, 16, 16, 13, 8, 10, 6, 13, 4, 14, 2, 6, 5, 6, 8, 3, 1, 10, 6, 5, 5, 14

## Missed seasonal-sale revenue (modeled)

Skipped 4 Steam seasonal sale window(s) in the last 22 months. Running a -50% discount in those windows is modeled at +$2.1k net in total, assuming a unit uplift of x3.0 (industry-typical for old catalog titles). Same ±30-50% error range applies.

## Markets by review language

- french: 0% (game NOT localized in this language)
- german: 1% (game NOT localized in this language)
- english: 50%
- spanish: 0% (game NOT localized in this language)
- schinese: 39%
- koreana: 2% (game NOT localized in this language)
- russian: 3% (game NOT localized in this language)
- japanese: 1% (game NOT localized in this language)
- brazilian: 4% (game NOT localized in this language)

Localization gap: 11% of measured reviews are written in languages the game does not support (top: brazilian). Localizing is likely immediate market expansion.

## Methodology

Units are estimated from Steam-purchase reviews times a release-cohort multiplier (Boxleiter method, 20-75x by year). Revenue uses an effective price (lifetime discounts and regional pricing) and nets out VAT (~13%), refunds (~9.5%) and Steam's 30% cut: roughly 55% of gross reaches the developer.

Source: https://residualplay.com/game/2184350
Citation: please cite ResidualPlay (https://residualplay.com) when using these estimates.