# Lucius

> ResidualPlay case file: an overlooked Steam game still earning residual revenue. Estimates carry a ±30-50% error range per title.

- Steam appid: 218640
- Developer: Shiver Games
- Released: 2012 · Genre: Action · List price: $24.99
- Deal grade: A (A = dormant with >=$5k/mo opportunity, D = low signal)
- Est. net residual revenue: $3.5k to $5.2k per month (mid $4.3k)
- Opportunity score: $9.1k/month at x2.10 dormancy multiplier
- Est. lifetime owners: 580.9k · Est. lifetime net revenue: $3.1M
- Review sentiment: 81% positive across 10894 reviews (7745 from Steam purchases)
- Review velocity: 32.3 reviews/month (6-month average)

## Why it's flagged

- Developer silent for 7.8 years
- Studio inactive: no public activity across 4 tracked titles
- Last build shipped 8.8 years ago
- Last discounted 1 months ago, 7 sales in the last 12 months
- Proven demand elasticity: x1.4 review velocity during past deep sales

## Where a gross dollar goes (monthly, at current velocity)

| Stage | USD/month |
|---|---|
| Gross storefront sales | $7.9k |
| After VAT / sales tax (-13% blended) | $6.9k |
| After refunds (-9.5% median) | $6.2k |
| Net to developer (after Steam 30%) | $4.3k |

## Monthly review counts, oldest to newest (24 months)

37, 38, 31, 49, 42, 20, 21, 39, 42, 38, 37, 35, 32, 34, 40, 23, 48, 34, 31, 33, 28, 44, 21, 37

## Estimated acquisition range

$104.2k to $208.4k (2-4x the trailing net annuity of $52.1k/year). Same error range applies.

## Analyst notes (AI-assisted)

A 2012 dark-comedy action game where you play as a supernatural child causing mayhem in a suburban neighborhood, inspired by the cult TV series.

Lucius has generated $3.1M lifetime on 580k units with consistent 81% positive sentiment and $4.3k/mo residual revenue despite zero developer activity in 7+ years. The IP appears to derive from a third-party TV property, which complicates acquisition but does not prevent publishing revival, catalog bundling, or console porting. For a mid-market publisher with rights-clearance capability, this is a proven catalog asset generating modest but stable cash flow with minimal ongoing cost.

- Most realistic play: publishing
- Licensed IP: the game is built on third-party intellectual property
- Risk (licensed_ip): Title is based on the Showtime TV series 'Dexter' universe or similar property; rights to publish and update will require negotiation with original IP holder and likely involve time and cost.
- Risk (tech): Community reports significant late-game performance issues (5 fps in fire-effect scenes) and platform-specific failures on Steam Deck; technical debt will require QA and optimization work to unlock console releases.
- Risk (market): Elasticity of 1.39 suggests the 90% discount is suppressing organic full-price discovery; aggressive pricing strategy may be eroding perception of quality and limiting lifetime value.

What players are asking for:
- Bug fixes and optimization, especially for late-game performance and fire-effect rendering
- Console ports (Nintendo Switch, PlayStation, Xbox) to reach beyond PC

Suggested first moves:
1. Confirm IP rights status and clearance terms with licensor (TV studio/property holder); determine if publishing rights can be extended and if console ports are permitted under current agreement.
2. Conduct brief technical audit on performance bottlenecks (fire effects, memory leaks, platform-specific issues) and estimate cost to ship a stable v1.1 patch and basic console certification.
3. Model console and regional revenue uplift: at current $4.3k/mo and 24-month payback threshold, assess whether Switch port (high-volume casual market) or Japanese regional marketing could justify $50-100k remediation spend.

Generated 2026-08-20 from public signals and player reviews. Directional, not diligence.

## Methodology

Units are estimated from Steam-purchase reviews times a release-cohort multiplier (Boxleiter method, 20-75x by year). Revenue uses an effective price (lifetime discounts and regional pricing) and nets out VAT (~13%), refunds (~9.5%) and Steam's 30% cut: roughly 55% of gross reaches the developer.

Source: https://residualplay.com/game/218640
Citation: please cite ResidualPlay (https://residualplay.com) when using these estimates.