# Umamusume: Pretty Derby - Party Dash

> ResidualPlay case file: an overlooked Steam game still earning residual revenue. Estimates carry a ±30-50% error range per title.

- Steam appid: 2313020
- Developer: Cygames, Inc.
- Released: 2024 · Genre: Action · List price: $44.99
- Deal grade: A (A = dormant with >=$5k/mo opportunity, D = low signal)
- Est. net residual revenue: $10.8k to $16.2k per month (mid $13.5k)
- Opportunity score: $17.6k/month at x1.30 dormancy multiplier
- Est. lifetime owners: 44.3k · Est. lifetime net revenue: $582.5k
- Review sentiment: 74% positive across 1564 reviews (1384 from Steam purchases)
- Review velocity: 41.2 reviews/month (6-month average)

## Why it's flagged

- Developer active, last post 1 months ago
- Studio active elsewhere (5 titles tracked), so this one may welcome a partner
- Last build shipped 20 months ago
- Last discounted 1 months ago, 7 sales in the last 12 months

## Where a gross dollar goes (monthly, at current velocity)

| Stage | USD/month |
|---|---|
| Gross storefront sales | $24.6k |
| After VAT / sales tax (-13% blended) | $21.4k |
| After refunds (-9.5% median) | $19.3k |
| Net to developer (after Steam 30%) | $13.5k |

## Monthly review counts, oldest to newest (24 months)

571, 80, 21, 58, 12, 14, 24, 12, 18, 19, 21, 39, 44, 49, 37, 45, 49, 63, 46, 52, 51, 31, 14, 53

## Missed seasonal-sale revenue (modeled)

Skipped 5 Steam seasonal sale window(s) in the last 24 months. Running a -50% discount in those windows is modeled at +$33.0k net in total, assuming a unit uplift of x3.0 (industry-typical for old catalog titles). Same ±30-50% error range applies.

## Estimated acquisition range

$324.8k to $649.7k (2-4x the trailing net annuity of $162.4k/year). Same error range applies.

## Markets by review language

- english: 35%
- russian: 2% (game NOT localized in this language)
- french: 1%
- koreana: 9% (game NOT localized in this language)
- spanish: 8%
- japanese: 6%
- schinese: 38%
- brazilian: 1% (game NOT localized in this language)
- german: 0%

Localization gap: 13% of measured reviews are written in languages the game does not support (top: koreana). Localizing is likely immediate market expansion.

## Analyst notes (AI-assisted)

Umamusume: Pretty Derby - Party Dash is a licensed minigame collection spin-off built around cute horse-girl characters from the mobile gacha franchise.

This title sits in an awkward zone: it has earned $582k lifetime on modest sales volume (44k units), posts $13.5k/mo residual revenue, and holds a 74% positive rating despite chronic complaints about $45 pricing and broken online multiplayer. The player base, concentrated in East Asia (Korean and Simplified Chinese reviews dominate), clearly values the IP and local couch co-op but abandons the game unless heavily discounted. A price correction ($15-20 range) or online fix could unlock substantially higher velocity; acquisition value depends entirely on Cygames' willingness to part with the IP or grant publishing rights.

- Most realistic play: licensing
- Licensed IP: the game is built on third-party intellectual property
- Risk (licensed_ip): Umamusume IP is owned by Cygames, Inc.; the studio retains all publishing and product decisions, making independent acquisition of the game impossible without a licensing deal with the parent company.
- Risk (market): Extreme price sensitivity and player consensus that $45 is unjustifiable for a minigame collection suggests elastic demand; margin compression at lower price tiers will reduce absolute revenue despite higher unit throughput.
- Risk (multiplayer): Online mode is non-functional per player feedback, yet is a marketing feature; repair requires engineering investment and ongoing infrastructure cost.
- Risk (other): Localization gap of 12.5% (primarily Korean) and review fragmentation across Asian markets indicate Western appeal is niche; strategy must either invest in localization or focus distribution on existing strongholds.

What players are asking for:
- Lower the base price to $15-20 or increase discount frequency to 60-70% off.
- Fix online multiplayer functionality and add online lobbies for matchmaking.
- Expand the roster to include more character favorites from the main Umamusume IP.
- Release a bundled special edition or season pass with cosmetic items as value driver.

Suggested first moves:
1. Contact Cygames licensing team to explore a price-adjustment or distribution partnership; the data shows elasticity of 0.56, meaning a 20% price drop could increase volume by ~11% and potentially grow monthly revenue.
2. Commission a technical audit of the online multiplayer system; if repair cost is under $50k, a fixed version plus targeted re-launch in Korea and China could recapture lost sales momentum.
3. Analyze whether a free-to-play conversion with cosmetic battle pass monetization could retain fanbase engagement and improve LTV without cannibalizing existing sales.

Generated 2026-08-20 from public signals and player reviews. Directional, not diligence.

## Methodology

Units are estimated from Steam-purchase reviews times a release-cohort multiplier (Boxleiter method, 20-75x by year). Revenue uses an effective price (lifetime discounts and regional pricing) and nets out VAT (~13%), refunds (~9.5%) and Steam's 30% cut: roughly 55% of gross reaches the developer.

Source: https://residualplay.com/game/2313020
Citation: please cite ResidualPlay (https://residualplay.com) when using these estimates.