# Gensokyo：Presumption of Guilt~Pansies Before Dawn

> ResidualPlay case file: an overlooked Steam game still earning residual revenue. Estimates carry a ±30-50% error range per title.

- Steam appid: 2325310
- Developer: 戏壤游戏(Xirang Games)
- Released: 2026 · Genre: Adventure · List price: $14.99
- Deal grade: C (A = dormant with >=$5k/mo opportunity, D = low signal)
- Est. net residual revenue: $5.0k to $7.5k per month (mid $6.3k)
- Opportunity score: $6.3k/month at x1.00 dormancy multiplier
- Est. lifetime owners: 7.9k · Est. lifetime net revenue: $39.9k
- Review sentiment: 93% positive across 361 reviews (248 from Steam purchases)
- Review velocity: 49.8 reviews/month (6-month average)

## Why it's flagged

- Developer active, last post 2 months ago
- Last build shipped 3 months ago
- Store page localized in only 1 language(s)
- Last discounted 1 months ago, 3 sales in the last 12 months

## Where a gross dollar goes (monthly, at current velocity)

| Stage | USD/month |
|---|---|
| Gross storefront sales | $11.4k |
| After VAT / sales tax (-13% blended) | $9.9k |
| After refunds (-9.5% median) | $8.9k |
| Net to developer (after Steam 30%) | $6.3k |

## Monthly review counts, oldest to newest (5 months)

185, 32, 15, 8, 9

## Missed seasonal-sale revenue (modeled)

Skipped 3 Steam seasonal sale window(s) in the last 5 months. Running a -50% discount in those windows is modeled at +$12.7k net in total, assuming a unit uplift of x3.0 (industry-typical for old catalog titles). Same ±30-50% error range applies.

## Markets by review language

- english: 2% (game NOT localized in this language)
- koreana: 0% (game NOT localized in this language)
- japanese: 0% (game NOT localized in this language)
- schinese: 98%

## Methodology

Units are estimated from Steam-purchase reviews times a release-cohort multiplier (Boxleiter method, 20-75x by year). Revenue uses an effective price (lifetime discounts and regional pricing) and nets out VAT (~13%), refunds (~9.5%) and Steam's 30% cut: roughly 55% of gross reaches the developer.

Source: https://residualplay.com/game/2325310
Citation: please cite ResidualPlay (https://residualplay.com) when using these estimates.