# Frog Island

> ResidualPlay case file: an overlooked Steam game still earning residual revenue. Estimates carry a ±30-50% error range per title.

**Measured on 2026-08-30 03:56 UTC.** The whole Steam catalog is re-measured daily; a game that just launched can move a lot between passes.

- Steam appid: 2332150
- Developer: DevFrog
- Publisher: Shovel Sprout
- Released: 2026 · Genre: Indie · List price: $7.99
- Deal grade: B (A = dormant with >=$5k/mo opportunity, D = low signal)
- Est. net residual revenue: $2.5k to $3.7k per month (mid $3.1k)
- Opportunity score: $4.0k/month at x1.30 dormancy multiplier
- Est. lifetime owners: 2.6k · Est. lifetime net revenue: $6.9k
- Review sentiment: 94% positive across 90 reviews (64 from Steam purchases)
- Review velocity: 46.2 reviews/month (6-month average)

## Why it's flagged

- Developer active, last post 0 months ago
- Last build shipped 0 months ago
- Store page localized in only 1 language(s)

## Where a gross dollar goes (monthly, at current velocity)

| Stage | USD/month |
|---|---|
| Gross storefront sales | $5.6k |
| After VAT / sales tax (-13% blended) | $4.9k |
| After refunds (-9.5% median) | $4.4k |
| Net to developer (after Steam 30%) | $3.1k |

## Estimated acquisition range

$74.4k to $148.8k (2-4x the trailing net annuity of $37.2k/year). Same error range applies.

## Markets by review language

- schinese: 2% (game NOT localized in this language)
- french: 2% (game NOT localized in this language)
- german: 3% (game NOT localized in this language)
- english: 92%
- japanese: 2% (game NOT localized in this language)

## Analyst notes (AI-assisted)

_Note written 2026-08-30 from that day's data; the figures in the header are live and supersede any numbers here._

A cozy creature-collector life sim where players care for frogs on an island, with fishing, bug-catching, and crafting minigames.

Frog Island launched fresh in 2026 to strong community enthusiasm (94% positive, nearly 50 reviews/month) and healthy residual revenue. The developer shows active engagement: dev communication within weeks, a live patch responding to player feedback on minigame difficulty, and clear passion for the title. This is a rare case of a debut indie that arrived polished enough to earn sustainable engagement; the question is whether it has legs as a catalog item or revival opportunity, or whether its core cozy-collector appeal is already saturating its addressable audience.

- Most realistic play: watch
- Risk (market): Cozy-collector genre is crowded; differentiation rests entirely on frog IP and art style, which may have limited staying power versus established franchises like Neko Atsume.
- Risk (tech): Minigame design (fishing, bug-catching, washing) is polarizing; some players find controls unintuitive or progression gated in ways that frustrate casual audiences.
- Risk (other): Single-studio, single-title publisher with no track record; dev continuity and long-term support roadmap are unproven.

What players are asking for:
- Save-anywhere option (currently save points only); more flexible progress checkpointing.
- Fishing and bug-catching minigame difficulty tuning (already partially addressed in post-launch patch; requests for further accessibility remain).
- Clearer in-game hints for side quests and discovery mechanics to reduce player confusion.
- Additional endgame content and frog variety to extend playtime beyond 20-30 hours.

Suggested first moves:
1. Audit the live telemetry on retention curves and genre-comparative spend per player to determine if residuals are trending stable or declining; cozy-collectors typically front-load engagement.
2. Review the dev's post-launch patch cadence and any public roadmap to assess likelihood of ongoing support and content drops; if roadmap is finite, consider whether acquisition for catalog ownership or revival campaigns makes sense.
3. Map the German localization gap and key reseller saturation (28% of revenue is estimated key-share) to identify low-hanging revenue levers: full German translation, regional marketing, or console/mobile ports could extend lifecycle without cannibalizing primary audience.

Generated 2026-08-30 from public signals and player reviews. Directional, not diligence.

## Methodology

Units are estimated from Steam-purchase reviews times a release-cohort multiplier, 40-75x by year. Cohorts from 2020 on are calibrated against 182 sales milestones announced by developers; older ones follow the published Boxleiter tables. Revenue uses an effective price (lifetime discounts and regional pricing) and nets out VAT (~13%), refunds (~9.5%) and Steam's 30% cut: roughly 55% of gross reaches the developer.

Source: https://residualplay.com/game/2332150
Citation: please cite ResidualPlay (https://residualplay.com) when you publish or quote these estimates.