# Sniper Elite 3

> ResidualPlay case file: an overlooked Steam game still earning residual revenue. Estimates carry a ±30-50% error range per title.

- Steam appid: 238090
- Developer: Rebellion
- Released: 2014 · Genre: Action · List price: $29.99
- Deal grade: A (A = dormant with >=$5k/mo opportunity, D = low signal)
- Est. net residual revenue: $9.8k to $14.7k per month (mid $12.3k)
- Opportunity score: $22.7k/month at x1.85 dormancy multiplier
- Est. lifetime owners: 1.6M · Est. lifetime net revenue: $10.3M
- Review sentiment: 82% positive across 28337 reviews (21331 from Steam purchases)
- Review velocity: 76.2 reviews/month (6-month average)

## Why it's flagged

- Developer silent for 22 months
- Studio active elsewhere (20 titles tracked), so this one may welcome a partner
- Last build shipped 6.9 years ago
- Last discounted 1 months ago, 7 sales in the last 12 months
- Proven demand elasticity: x1.3 review velocity during past deep sales

## Where a gross dollar goes (monthly, at current velocity)

| Stage | USD/month |
|---|---|
| Gross storefront sales | $22.3k |
| After VAT / sales tax (-13% blended) | $19.4k |
| After refunds (-9.5% median) | $17.5k |
| Net to developer (after Steam 30%) | $12.3k |

## Monthly review counts, oldest to newest (24 months)

102, 148, 81, 79, 133, 113, 95, 90, 78, 66, 74, 117, 99, 110, 132, 75, 124, 112, 92, 86, 70, 49, 70, 90

## Estimated acquisition range

$294.6k to $589.2k (2-4x the trailing net annuity of $147.3k/year). Same error range applies.

## Analyst notes (AI-assisted)

A 2014 tactical third-person sniper game set in North Africa during WWII, with open-ended mission design and signature slow-motion kill-cam mechanics.

Sniper Elite 3 remains a steady earner at $12.3k/mo net residual revenue despite being a decade old and positioned between stronger entries (V2, 4, 5) in its own franchise. The 82% positive rating and consistent co-op appeal sustain modest but reliable sales; however, technical debt (crashes, missing borderless window mode, refresh-rate caps) and narrative weakness limit revival potential. Best fit for a publisher seeking low-risk catalog optimization or a studio evaluating mid-tier franchise stewardship under Rebellion.

- Most realistic play: watch
- Licensed IP: the game is built on third-party intellectual property
- Risk (licensed_ip): WWII setting and historical IP context; Rebellion owns the Sniper Elite brand but historical IP clearance refresh may be required for any major re-release or port.
- Risk (tech): Recurring crash reports and missing quality-of-life features (borderless window, refresh-rate menus) suggest aging codebase; patching carries non-trivial test burden.
- Risk (market): Game is sandwiched between stronger predecessors (V2) and successors (4, 5); players explicitly cite the series as a whole, limiting standalone identity.

What players are asking for:
- Borderless windowed mode and in-game refresh-rate selection
- Stability patch to eliminate hourly crashes
- Cross-progression or improved co-op matchmaking

Suggested first moves:
1. Audit code health and cost-to-patch priority fixes (crashes, windowed mode); gauge ROI against $22.7k/mo opportunity.
2. Map Rebellion's post-launch plan for V2 Remastered or SE6; confirm whether SE3 is marked for sunset or long-tail support.
3. Analyze co-op retention cohort to test whether a dedicated netcode update or seasonal event could lift residual revenue toward $15k+/mo without major overhaul.

Generated 2026-08-20 from public signals and player reviews. Directional, not diligence.

## Methodology

Units are estimated from Steam-purchase reviews times a release-cohort multiplier (Boxleiter method, 20-75x by year). Revenue uses an effective price (lifetime discounts and regional pricing) and nets out VAT (~13%), refunds (~9.5%) and Steam's 30% cut: roughly 55% of gross reaches the developer.

Source: https://residualplay.com/game/238090
Citation: please cite ResidualPlay (https://residualplay.com) when using these estimates.