# Ark Nova

> ResidualPlay case file: an overlooked Steam game still earning residual revenue. Estimates carry a ±30-50% error range per title.

- Steam appid: 2438990
- Developer: Dire Wolf
- Released: 2025 · Genre: Strategy · List price: $22.99
- Deal grade: C (A = dormant with >=$5k/mo opportunity, D = low signal)
- Est. net residual revenue: $4.1k to $6.1k per month (mid $5.1k)
- Opportunity score: $5.1k/month at x1.00 dormancy multiplier
- Est. lifetime owners: 25.5k · Est. lifetime net revenue: $196.6k
- Review sentiment: 94% positive across 879 reviews (797 from Steam purchases)
- Review velocity: 26.3 reviews/month (6-month average)

## Why it's flagged

- Developer active, last post 7 months ago
- Studio active elsewhere (10 titles tracked), so this one may welcome a partner
- Last build shipped 2 months ago
- Last discounted 0 months ago, 11 sales in the last 12 months

## Where a gross dollar goes (monthly, at current velocity)

| Stage | USD/month |
|---|---|
| Gross storefront sales | $9.2k |
| After VAT / sales tax (-13% blended) | $8.0k |
| After refunds (-9.5% median) | $7.3k |
| Net to developer (after Steam 30%) | $5.1k |

## Monthly review counts, oldest to newest (20 months)

133, 60, 42, 38, 41, 35, 32, 42, 25, 26, 45, 55, 23, 34, 27, 29, 28, 16, 30, 28

## Missed seasonal-sale revenue (modeled)

Skipped 6 Steam seasonal sale window(s) in the last 20 months. Running a -50% discount in those windows is modeled at +$34.7k net in total, assuming a unit uplift of x3.0 (industry-typical for old catalog titles). Same ±30-50% error range applies.

## Markets by review language

- french: 5%
- german: 6%
- english: 49%
- russian: 1% (game NOT localized in this language)
- spanish: 2%
- brazilian: 1% (game NOT localized in this language)
- koreana: 2%
- japanese: 1%
- schinese: 33%

## Methodology

Units are estimated from Steam-purchase reviews times a release-cohort multiplier (Boxleiter method, 20-75x by year). Revenue uses an effective price (lifetime discounts and regional pricing) and nets out VAT (~13%), refunds (~9.5%) and Steam's 30% cut: roughly 55% of gross reaches the developer.

Source: https://residualplay.com/game/2438990
Citation: please cite ResidualPlay (https://residualplay.com) when using these estimates.