# Shape of Dreams

> ResidualPlay case file: an overlooked Steam game still earning residual revenue. Estimates carry a ±30-50% error range per title.

- Steam appid: 2444750
- Developer: Lizard Smoothie
- Publisher: NEOWIZ
- Released: 2025 · Genre: Action · List price: $24.99
- Deal grade: C (A = dormant with >=$5k/mo opportunity, D = low signal)
- Est. net residual revenue: $67.0k to $100.4k per month (mid $83.7k)
- Opportunity score: $83.7k/month at x1.00 dormancy multiplier
- Est. lifetime owners: 497.4k · Est. lifetime net revenue: $4.2M
- Review sentiment: 90% positive across 20150 reviews (15545 from Steam purchases)
- Review velocity: 399.5 reviews/month (6-month average)

## Why it's flagged

- Developer active, last post 1 months ago
- Last build shipped 2 months ago
- Last discounted 0 months ago, 10 sales in the last 12 months

## Where a gross dollar goes (monthly, at current velocity)

| Stage | USD/month |
|---|---|
| Gross storefront sales | $151.9k |
| After VAT / sales tax (-13% blended) | $132.2k |
| After refunds (-9.5% median) | $119.6k |
| Net to developer (after Steam 30%) | $83.7k |

## Monthly review counts, oldest to newest (11 months)

7093, 1667, 1482, 1680, 1428, 609, 501, 464, 199, 297, 327

## Missed seasonal-sale revenue (modeled)

Skipped 1 Steam seasonal sale window(s) in the last 11 months. Running a -50% discount in those windows is modeled at +$149.6k net in total, assuming a unit uplift of x3.0 (industry-typical for old catalog titles). Same ±30-50% error range applies.

## Markets by review language

- french: 1%
- english: 45%
- koreana: 13%
- russian: 6%
- spanish: 1% (game NOT localized in this language)
- japanese: 3%
- german: 1%
- schinese: 27%
- brazilian: 2%

## Methodology

Units are estimated from Steam-purchase reviews times a release-cohort multiplier (Boxleiter method, 20-75x by year). Revenue uses an effective price (lifetime discounts and regional pricing) and nets out VAT (~13%), refunds (~9.5%) and Steam's 30% cut: roughly 55% of gross reaches the developer.

Source: https://residualplay.com/game/2444750
Citation: please cite ResidualPlay (https://residualplay.com) when using these estimates.