# Winter Memories

> ResidualPlay case file: an overlooked Steam game still earning residual revenue. Estimates carry a ±30-50% error range per title.

- Steam appid: 2495450
- Developer: Dojin Otome
- Publisher: Kagura Games
- Released: 2024 · Genre: Adventure · List price: $19.99
- Deal grade: A (A = dormant with >=$5k/mo opportunity, D = low signal)
- Est. net residual revenue: $9.8k to $14.7k per month (mid $12.2k)
- Opportunity score: $15.9k/month at x1.30 dormancy multiplier
- Est. lifetime owners: 329.8k · Est. lifetime net revenue: $1.9M
- Review sentiment: 97% positive across 10583 reviews (10307 from Steam purchases)
- Review velocity: 83.7 reviews/month (6-month average)

## Why it's flagged

- Developer active, last post 12 months ago
- Studio active elsewhere (3 titles tracked), so this one may welcome a partner
- Last build shipped 24 months ago
- Store page localized in only 3 language(s)
- Last discounted 1 months ago, 11 sales in the last 12 months

## Where a gross dollar goes (monthly, at current velocity)

| Stage | USD/month |
|---|---|
| Gross storefront sales | $22.2k |
| After VAT / sales tax (-13% blended) | $19.3k |
| After refunds (-9.5% median) | $17.5k |
| Net to developer (after Steam 30%) | $12.2k |

## Monthly review counts, oldest to newest (24 months)

272, 186, 206, 1452, 600, 226, 193, 157, 137, 113, 155, 218, 133, 225, 137, 95, 98, 108, 80, 87, 73, 67, 87, 108

## Missed seasonal-sale revenue (modeled)

Skipped 2 Steam seasonal sale window(s) in the last 24 months. Running a -50% discount in those windows is modeled at +$18.3k net in total, assuming a unit uplift of x3.0 (industry-typical for old catalog titles). Same ±30-50% error range applies.

## Estimated acquisition range

$293.3k to $586.7k (2-4x the trailing net annuity of $146.7k/year). Same error range applies.

## Markets by review language

- french: 0% (game NOT localized in this language)
- english: 6%
- russian: 1% (game NOT localized in this language)
- spanish: 2% (game NOT localized in this language)
- japanese: 0%
- schinese: 88%
- german: 0% (game NOT localized in this language)
- koreana: 3% (game NOT localized in this language)
- brazilian: 0% (game NOT localized in this language)

## Analyst notes (AI-assisted)

A 2024 adult visual novel from Dojin Otome and Kagura Games that has generated ~$1.9M net lifetime revenue and maintains strong community engagement.

Winter Memories is a quiet performer in the adult VN category, sitting at 97.5% positive with $12.2k/mo residual revenue and minimal discount activity in the past month. The IP is owned by Dojin Otome (developer) and published by Kagura Games; acquisition would require negotiation with both parties. Player demand for a third installment is explicit and vocal. This is a watch candidate for a publisher or platform seeking dormant but profitable catalog titles with proven franchise legs, though licensing complexity and the niche market limit upside.

- Most realistic play: watch
- Risk (other): IP ownership split between developer Dojin Otome and publisher Kagura Games; acquisition or revival would require dual consent.
- Risk (market): Adult VN category faces platform visibility and payment-processor friction; expansion beyond current $19.99 price point or sequel funding carry execution risk.
- Risk (other): Developer silent for 11.7 months; no posted roadmap or communication on sequel status despite explicit player demand.

What players are asking for:
- Third installment in the series
- More character depth and story development
- Updated localization for Korean and Simplified Chinese (6% gap in translation coverage)

Suggested first moves:
1. Contact Dojin Otome and Kagura Games separately to map IP ownership and appetite for a sequel or publishing partnership; confirm whether either party has shelved the franchise or is exploring self-funded production.
2. Audit the 6% localization gap in Korean and Simplified Chinese (233 and 8,143 reviews respectively) to quantify uplift from completing translations; this segment may be undermonetized.
3. Model a revival campaign: refresh the Steam store page with a sequel teaser, run a modest deep-sale (current max is 50%) timed to franchise anniversaries, and test whether dormant wishlists can be reactivated via email.

Generated 2026-08-20 from public signals and player reviews. Directional, not diligence.

## Methodology

Units are estimated from Steam-purchase reviews times a release-cohort multiplier (Boxleiter method, 20-75x by year). Revenue uses an effective price (lifetime discounts and regional pricing) and nets out VAT (~13%), refunds (~9.5%) and Steam's 30% cut: roughly 55% of gross reaches the developer.

Source: https://residualplay.com/game/2495450
Citation: please cite ResidualPlay (https://residualplay.com) when using these estimates.