# The Vanishing of Ethan Carter

> ResidualPlay case file: an overlooked Steam game still earning residual revenue. Estimates carry a ±30-50% error range per title.

- Steam appid: 258520
- Developer: The Astronauts
- Released: 2014 · Genre: Adventure · List price: $19.99
- Deal grade: B (A = dormant with >=$5k/mo opportunity, D = low signal)
- Est. net residual revenue: $902 to $1.4k per month (mid $1.1k)
- Opportunity score: $2.4k/month at x2.10 dormancy multiplier
- Est. lifetime owners: 514.7k · Est. lifetime net revenue: $2.2M
- Review sentiment: 88% positive across 8976 reviews (6863 from Steam purchases)
- Review velocity: 10.5 reviews/month (6-month average)

## Why it's flagged

- Developer silent for 11.1 years
- Studio active elsewhere (2 titles tracked), so this one may welcome a partner
- Last build shipped 11.8 years ago
- Last discounted 1 months ago, 5 sales in the last 12 months

## Where a gross dollar goes (monthly, at current velocity)

| Stage | USD/month |
|---|---|
| Gross storefront sales | $2.0k |
| After VAT / sales tax (-13% blended) | $1.8k |
| After refunds (-9.5% median) | $1.6k |
| Net to developer (after Steam 30%) | $1.1k |

## Monthly review counts, oldest to newest (24 months)

15, 15, 17, 11, 16, 12, 5, 9, 10, 7, 11, 11, 8, 12, 13, 12, 19, 13, 9, 9, 11, 11, 11, 12

## Estimated acquisition range

$27.1k to $54.1k (2-4x the trailing net annuity of $13.5k/year). Same error range applies.

## Analyst notes (AI-assisted)

A first-person walking detective mystery set in rural Pennsylvania where players reconstruct a vanished boy's final days through environmental storytelling.

The Vanishing of Ethan Carter generates $1.1k/mo in residual revenue from a stable, engaged niche audience despite zero developer activity for 133 months. The 88% positive rate, elastic demand curve, and recent discount (1.4 months ago) signal latent commercial potential; however, the game's small studio status, single-title catalogue, and weak onboarding create acquisition risk unless repositioned as a publishing or revival play targeting renewed horror-mystery interest.

- Most realistic play: watch
- Risk (other): Developer status is dormant; no meaningful engagement since late 2022, making rights consolidation and future support uncertain.
- Risk (market): Core audience is highly niche walking simulator fans; mainstream visibility has eroded over 12 years.
- Risk (tech): Player feedback flags poor onboarding, illogical puzzle logic, and autosave bugs that frustrate new players and deter revival campaigns without redesign.

What players are asking for:
- Clearer tutorial/onboarding for detective mechanics and movement controls
- Improved autosave frequency to prevent progress loss on failure
- Quality-of-life updates (accessibility options, hint system for stuck players)

Suggested first moves:
1. Audit source code and asset pipeline for technical debt; estimate cost to resolve autosave and stability issues before any rerelease.
2. Conduct cohort analysis of recent 12-month purchasers (5 lifetime units) to confirm whether residual revenue comes from organic discovery, sale events, or back-catalogue bundles.
3. If revival play: prototype a guided tutorial mode or streamlined puzzle hint system; A/B test with a small player segment to measure onboarding completion rate improvement.

Generated 2026-08-20 from public signals and player reviews. Directional, not diligence.

## Methodology

Units are estimated from Steam-purchase reviews times a release-cohort multiplier (Boxleiter method, 20-75x by year). Revenue uses an effective price (lifetime discounts and regional pricing) and nets out VAT (~13%), refunds (~9.5%) and Steam's 30% cut: roughly 55% of gross reaches the developer.

Source: https://residualplay.com/game/258520
Citation: please cite ResidualPlay (https://residualplay.com) when using these estimates.