# ICBM: Escalation

> ResidualPlay case file: an overlooked Steam game still earning residual revenue. Estimates carry a ±30-50% error range per title.

- Steam appid: 2647680
- Developer: SoftWarWare
- Publisher: Slitherine Ltd.
- Released: 2024 · Genre: Strategy · List price: $29.99
- Deal grade: C (A = dormant with >=$5k/mo opportunity, D = low signal)
- Est. net residual revenue: $5.4k to $8.1k per month (mid $6.7k)
- Opportunity score: $6.7k/month at x1.00 dormancy multiplier
- Est. lifetime owners: 39.3k · Est. lifetime net revenue: $344.5k
- Review sentiment: 86% positive across 1428 reviews (1228 from Steam purchases)
- Review velocity: 30.7 reviews/month (6-month average)

## Why it's flagged

- Developer active, last post 0 months ago
- Studio active elsewhere (2 titles tracked), so this one may welcome a partner
- Last build shipped 0 months ago
- Last discounted 1 months ago, 10 sales in the last 12 months

## Where a gross dollar goes (monthly, at current velocity)

| Stage | USD/month |
|---|---|
| Gross storefront sales | $12.2k |
| After VAT / sales tax (-13% blended) | $10.6k |
| After refunds (-9.5% median) | $9.6k |
| Net to developer (after Steam 30%) | $6.7k |

## Monthly review counts, oldest to newest (21 months)

441, 117, 96, 37, 36, 31, 50, 39, 50, 25, 36, 39, 20, 18, 34, 20, 33, 27, 38, 24, 42

## Missed seasonal-sale revenue (modeled)

Skipped 7 Steam seasonal sale window(s) in the last 21 months. Running a -50% discount in those windows is modeled at +$85.8k net in total, assuming a unit uplift of x3.0 (industry-typical for old catalog titles). Same ±30-50% error range applies.

## Markets by review language

- brazilian: 1% (game NOT localized in this language)
- german: 4%
- spanish: 1%
- schinese: 8%
- french: 2%
- english: 78%
- koreana: 0% (game NOT localized in this language)
- russian: 5%
- japanese: 0% (game NOT localized in this language)

## Methodology

Units are estimated from Steam-purchase reviews times a release-cohort multiplier (Boxleiter method, 20-75x by year). Revenue uses an effective price (lifetime discounts and regional pricing) and nets out VAT (~13%), refunds (~9.5%) and Steam's 30% cut: roughly 55% of gross reaches the developer.

Source: https://residualplay.com/game/2647680
Citation: please cite ResidualPlay (https://residualplay.com) when using these estimates.