# Braid

> ResidualPlay case file: an overlooked Steam game still earning residual revenue. Estimates carry a ±30-50% error range per title.

- Steam appid: 26800
- Developer: Number None
- Released: 2009 · Genre: Casual · List price: $14.99
- Deal grade: B (A = dormant with >=$5k/mo opportunity, D = low signal)
- Est. net residual revenue: $816 to $1.2k per month (mid $1.0k)
- Opportunity score: $2.0k/month at x2.00 dormancy multiplier
- Est. lifetime owners: 520.3k · Est. lifetime net revenue: $1.7M
- Review sentiment: 93% positive across 9950 reviews (6937 from Steam purchases)
- Review velocity: 12.7 reviews/month (6-month average)

## Why it's flagged

- Developer active, last post 2 months ago
- Last build shipped 11.2 years ago
- No Steam discount in 2.4 years (deepest tracked: -80%)

## Where a gross dollar goes (monthly, at current velocity)

| Stage | USD/month |
|---|---|
| Gross storefront sales | $1.9k |
| After VAT / sales tax (-13% blended) | $1.6k |
| After refunds (-9.5% median) | $1.5k |
| Net to developer (after Steam 30%) | $1.0k |

## Monthly review counts, oldest to newest (24 months)

27, 29, 15, 15, 13, 23, 17, 17, 21, 14, 14, 12, 14, 13, 12, 16, 19, 18, 12, 8, 13, 14, 19, 10

## Missed seasonal-sale revenue (modeled)

Skipped 12 Steam seasonal sale window(s) in the last 24 months. Running a -50% discount in those windows is modeled at +$7.4k net in total, assuming a unit uplift of x3.0 (industry-typical for old catalog titles). Same ±30-50% error range applies.

## Estimated acquisition range

$24.5k to $49.0k (2-4x the trailing net annuity of $12.2k/year). Same error range applies.

## Analyst notes (AI-assisted)

A 2D puzzle-platformer built on time-manipulation mechanics and visual narrative layering, developed by Jonathan Blow and published by Number None in 2009.

Braid is a quiet earner: $1.68M lifetime on 520K units with steady monthly residual revenue of $1,020/mo suggests evergreen appeal in a niche puzzle audience. The 93% positive rate and consistent low-volume sales indicate deep, durable brand equity among core players. For a publisher seeking to revive or expand a proven IP with minimal operational risk, Braid merits attention, though the single-studio developer and 11+ year development cycle on successor titles imply IP expansion would require external creative partnership.

- Most realistic play: revival
- Risk (tech): Build is 134 months old; platform fragmentation (console ports, mobile) may require technical refresh to maintain sales velocity and reach new audiences.
- Risk (market): Puzzle-platformer genre is crowded; without content expansion or sequel momentum, residual revenue is unlikely to accelerate without aggressive marketing or bundling strategy.
- Risk (other): Developer Jonathan Blow has not posted in 2 months and focuses primary effort on unreleased successor titles; active stewardship or co-development partnership would be needed for meaningful campaign.

What players are asking for:
- Sequel or spiritual successor (referenced in 3+ reviews)
- Port to modern platforms (console, mobile, VR) with updated UI
- Expanded difficulty modes or challenge content
- Developer commentary or behind-the-scenes documentary

Suggested first moves:
1. Audit console, mobile, and regional port performance (ITAD shows 30% key share; quantify non-Steam revenue to assess total franchise strength).
2. Secure exclusive rights conversation with Jonathan Blow to explore limited co-development (sequel, expanded edition, or narrative companion) that leverages his authority without requiring full creative control.
3. Test a limited revival campaign (bundle pricing, marketing spend, platform re-release) on one secondary platform (e.g., Switch, iPad, Xbox Game Pass) to measure elasticity and audience expansion before acquisition commitment.

Generated 2026-08-20 from public signals and player reviews. Directional, not diligence.

## Methodology

Units are estimated from Steam-purchase reviews times a release-cohort multiplier (Boxleiter method, 20-75x by year). Revenue uses an effective price (lifetime discounts and regional pricing) and nets out VAT (~13%), refunds (~9.5%) and Steam's 30% cut: roughly 55% of gross reaches the developer.

Source: https://residualplay.com/game/26800
Citation: please cite ResidualPlay (https://residualplay.com) when using these estimates.