# Detective Instinct: Farewell, My Beloved

> ResidualPlay case file: an overlooked Steam game still earning residual revenue. Estimates carry a ±30-50% error range per title.

- Steam appid: 2689930
- Developer: Armonica LLC
- Released: 2025 · Genre: Adventure · List price: $19.99
- Deal grade: C (A = dormant with >=$5k/mo opportunity, D = low signal)
- Est. net residual revenue: $1.9k to $2.9k per month (mid $2.4k)
- Opportunity score: $2.4k/month at x1.00 dormancy multiplier
- Est. lifetime owners: 13.4k · Est. lifetime net revenue: $90.1k
- Review sentiment: 94% positive across 448 reviews (420 from Steam purchases)
- Review velocity: 14.3 reviews/month (6-month average)

## Why it's flagged

- Developer active, last post 3 months ago
- Last build shipped 8 months ago
- Store page localized in only 2 language(s)
- Last discounted 1 months ago, 7 sales in the last 12 months

## Where a gross dollar goes (monthly, at current velocity)

| Stage | USD/month |
|---|---|
| Gross storefront sales | $4.4k |
| After VAT / sales tax (-13% blended) | $3.8k |
| After refunds (-9.5% median) | $3.4k |
| Net to developer (after Steam 30%) | $2.4k |

## Monthly review counts, oldest to newest (9 months)

154, 150, 29, 17, 19, 9, 18, 6, 17

## Missed seasonal-sale revenue (modeled)

Skipped 2 Steam seasonal sale window(s) in the last 9 months. Running a -50% discount in those windows is modeled at +$25.5k net in total, assuming a unit uplift of x3.0 (industry-typical for old catalog titles). Same ±30-50% error range applies.

## Markets by review language

- french: 3% (game NOT localized in this language)
- russian: 1% (game NOT localized in this language)
- spanish: 2% (game NOT localized in this language)
- japanese: 13%
- brazilian: 1% (game NOT localized in this language)
- german: 1% (game NOT localized in this language)
- english: 79%
- koreana: 0% (game NOT localized in this language)
- schinese: 1% (game NOT localized in this language)

## Methodology

Units are estimated from Steam-purchase reviews times a release-cohort multiplier (Boxleiter method, 20-75x by year). Revenue uses an effective price (lifetime discounts and regional pricing) and nets out VAT (~13%), refunds (~9.5%) and Steam's 30% cut: roughly 55% of gross reaches the developer.

Source: https://residualplay.com/game/2689930
Citation: please cite ResidualPlay (https://residualplay.com) when using these estimates.