# Boldly Forward

> ResidualPlay case file: an overlooked Steam game still earning residual revenue. Estimates carry a ±30-50% error range per title.

- Steam appid: 2758280
- Developer: SmallMill
- Released: 2024 · Genre: Adventure · List price: $3.99
- Deal grade: C (A = dormant with >=$5k/mo opportunity, D = low signal)
- Est. net residual revenue: $86 to $128 per month (mid $107)
- Opportunity score: $257/month at x2.40 dormancy multiplier
- Est. lifetime owners: 4.5k · Est. lifetime net revenue: $5.3k
- Review sentiment: 47% positive across 146 reviews (141 from Steam purchases)
- Review velocity: 3.7 reviews/month (6-month average)

## Why it's flagged

- Developer silent for 2.5 years
- Studio quiet across its whole catalog
- Last build shipped 30 months ago
- Store page localized in only 2 language(s)
- No Steam discount in 2.6 years (deepest tracked: -10%)

## Where a gross dollar goes (monthly, at current velocity)

| Stage | USD/month |
|---|---|
| Gross storefront sales | $194 |
| After VAT / sales tax (-13% blended) | $169 |
| After refunds (-9.5% median) | $153 |
| Net to developer (after Steam 30%) | $107 |

## Monthly review counts, oldest to newest (8 months)

119, 5, 2, 14, 2, 2, 1, 1

## Missed seasonal-sale revenue (modeled)

Skipped 5 Steam seasonal sale window(s) in the last 8 months. Running a -50% discount in those windows is modeled at +$2.0k net in total, assuming a unit uplift of x3.0 (industry-typical for old catalog titles). Same ±30-50% error range applies.

## Methodology

Units are estimated from Steam-purchase reviews times a release-cohort multiplier (Boxleiter method, 20-75x by year). Revenue uses an effective price (lifetime discounts and regional pricing) and nets out VAT (~13%), refunds (~9.5%) and Steam's 30% cut: roughly 55% of gross reaches the developer.

Source: https://residualplay.com/game/2758280
Citation: please cite ResidualPlay (https://residualplay.com) when using these estimates.